FCL Shipping Rates from China to New Zealand - October 2026 Outlook

September's disruption hasn't cleared, and October opens with Golden Week landing directly on top of an already-congested origin.

Here's what to plan around for October.

Where Rates Stand Heading into October

Shanghai berthing delays have worsened rather than eased: vessels are now waiting around 7 days at Yangshan Terminal and 9+ days at Wai Gao Qiao Terminal, the terminal New Zealand's two largest direct services call, with Ningbo running 3–4 days and Yantian around 4 days. Independent tracking data shows the same trend: Shanghai's seven-day average waiting time hit roughly 5.2 days and Ningbo's around 3.5 days in early September, driven by the cascading effect of multiple typhoons, with Ningbo yard occupancy sitting at 92–95%.

On top of that, Golden Week (China's National Day holiday) runs 1–7 October, and 2026 compresses the disruption further: Mid-Autumn Festival falls just before it, on 25–27 September, creating two stop-start weeks where factories, truckers, customs brokers and port offices run on skeleton or zero staffing from roughly 25 September through mid-October.

NZ-specific rate restoration and PSS levels for October are still being confirmed on our side — talk to your KLN Oceania contact before committing to a quote.

Five Things to Watch in October

1. Golden Week Lands Directly on Top of the Existing Congestion

This isn't a normal Golden Week. With Shanghai and Ningbo already running significant delays before the holiday even starts, the usual pre-holiday rush and post-holiday backlog will compound rather than simply add to the disruption. Expect the effective window to run from late September through mid-to-late October, not just the seven official holiday days.

2. The ANL/COSCO/OOCL Omission Pattern Is Still Running — and Has Spread to a Second Service

As flagged, this is ongoing: the ANZEX (ANL) / CNS (COSCO & OOCL) / NCS (PIL) service is still alternating omissions between Shanghai and Ningbo/Kaohsiung, and it's expected to continue rather than resolve.The ANZEX, CNS and NCS services have been alternating omissions between Shanghai and Ningbo or Kaohsiung for the past month or so, and this is likely to continue. New this month: the JKN (COSCO & OOCL) / J-Star (Maersk) / NZJ (ONE) service has started a similar alternating pattern between Yantian and Shanghai — currently planned for the next three sailings but but may extend if conditions don't improve. Maersk's Northern Star service is running a mix of Shanghai omissions and outright blanked sailings.

3. Some Relief Is Coming — Just Not Immediately

Two genuine positives worth flagging. MSC has launched a new Northern Loop service from 12 September (Sydney–Auckland–Napier–Tauranga–Sydney) and added Nelson and an extra Wellington call to its Southern Loop — a partial return to New Zealand coverage after the Wallaby withdrawal, though it doesn't yet replace a direct Asia–NZ MSC option. Separately, ANL's Tasman Trader resumes its New Zealand rotation from Auckland on 29 October, ending the fortnightly ANZ Shuttle arrangement that's been running since the disruption began. Neither fixes October, but both point toward more capacity from late October onward.

4. Landside Costs: Steady, With One Piece of Good News

Auckland VBS fees remain at $230 peak / $115 off-peak. The planned January 2027 increase has now been officially revised down by Port of Auckland via their own customer advisory — we don't have the exact new figure in front of us yet, but it's confirmed lower than the originally flagged $350. Separately, Napier port dues are being revised from 10 October for all trades — we haven't seen the exact quantum published yet, so confirm with us if you route through Napier.

5. Airfreight and BMSB Remain Live Cost Factors

BMSB Risk Season, now in effect since 1 September, continues through 30 April 2027 — no change this month, but still a factor if you're shipping target risk goods. Airfreight continues to absorb ocean overflow as importers respond to the Shanghai/Ningbo disruption, and jet fuel-driven surcharge increases flagged in September are expected to carry through October.

What It Means for NZ Importers

October is where three separate pressures overlap: origin congestion that's still building rather than clearing, Golden Week landing on top of it rather than after it, and the peak season demand pulse that typically defines September–November. The relief signals — MSC's expanded NZ coverage, ANL's capacity restoration — are real, but they land at the end of the month, not the start. Cargo-ready dates for anything needed in October or early November need real buffer, not optimistic planning against published ETAs.

The positions that matter most right now: bookings placed well ahead of the Golden Week cutoff window; cargo-ready dates confirmed with suppliers before Golden Week closures, not assumed; and awareness that the ANL/COSCO/OOCL omission pattern may affect your specific sailing regardless of which port it's scheduled to call.

What to Do Now

• Confirm supplier cut-off dates before Golden Week. Production, inspection and documentation need to clear before factories close on 1 October — don't assume a confirmed booking guarantees loading.
• Book 3–4 weeks ahead, minimum, into November. Post-Golden Week backlogs typically extend recovery into mid-to-late October.
• Check which port your sailing will call if you're on ANZEX/CNS/NCS or JKN/J-Star/NZJ. Both services are running alternating omission patterns — confirm before locking in a cargo-ready date.
• Ask about MSC's new Northern Loop and ANL's Tasman Trader return. If your routing or timing has flexibility, these may offer earlier options than your current service.
• Request all-in quotes. October rate restorations and PSS are still being confirmed — base rates won't reflect what you actually pay.
• Flag time-critical cargo now. Airfreight capacity is still tight and fuel surcharges remain elevated — plan mode-shift decisions ahead of a delay.

Outlook

October is a compounding month, not a fresh start: origin congestion that built through September meets Golden Week's compressed shutdown, with the season's genuine capacity relief — MSC's expanded coverage, ANL's restored NZ rotation — arriving only at the very end of the month. Importers who lock in bookings and confirm supplier cut-offs before the holiday will be far better placed than those trying to move cargo reactively once the backlog builds.

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