Chinese New Year 2026: Supply Chain Disruption Risks and Planning Guide

Every year, Chinese New Year (also known as Lunar New Year) brings one of the largest, most coordinated shutdowns in global trade. With China at the centre of many global supply chains, this holiday period affects everything from manufacturing and port operations to shipping schedules and customs clearance.

For businesses in Australia and New Zealand that rely heavily on imports from China, the impact can be significant—especially if planning is left too late.

In 2026, Chinese New Year falls on Tuesday, February 17. But as many supply chain managers already know, the disruption begins well before the actual holiday and lingers for weeks after. This blog breaks down what to expect, when to act, and how to prepare—so your business doesn’t get caught out.

Note: This article will be updated as more information becomes available regarding 2026 factory schedules, shipping cut-offs, and freight capacity forecasts.

🔎 Need a Quick Reference? Click here for FAQs and Planning Tips

Why Chinese New Year Disrupts Supply Chains

Chinese New Year is not just a one-day holiday, it’s a national event that brings the country to a near standstill for up to three weeks or more. Here’s why it matters for your supply chain:

1. Factory Closures

• Most factories in China shut down for two full weeks or longer. Many close before the official holiday and resume production after a gradual ramp-up.

• Workers often return to their hometowns and may not come back until mid-to-late March.

2. Production Slowdown

• In the 2–4 weeks leading up to the holiday, suppliers rush to clear backlogs.

• Lead times stretch as factories operate under pressure or reduce new order intake.

• Last-minute production is often deprioritised or rejected entirely.

3. Port Congestion and Trucking Shortages

• Truck drivers also take extended leave, which limits cargo movement to and from ports.

• Inland logistics bottlenecks affect your ability to get goods to the port—even if production finishes on time.

4. Ocean and Air Freight Capacity Crunch

• Shippers rush to dispatch goods before the shutdown, leading to tight capacity, rate increases, and longer transit times.

• After the holiday, there’s a backlog of unshipped cargo, often resulting in blank sailings and rollovers.

5. Customs and Administration Delays

• Chinese customs and CIQ (China Inspection and Quarantine) teams also operate on limited staffing.

• Documentation processing can be delayed, affecting exports and compliance timelines.

Why It Hits Australia & New Zealand Harder

• Both AU and NZ are heavily dependent on China for finished goods, raw materials, and components.

• Many businesses operate on tight inventory cycles or just-in-time models, which makes them more vulnerable to even short delays.

• Ocean transit times to ANZ often mean goods must depart well before the holiday to ensure timely delivery.

Key Dates & Timeline for 2026

Understanding the real disruption window is critical for effective planning. While the official Chinese New Year holiday spans just a few days, the operational impact on production and logistics stretches for 6 to 8 weeks—before and after the public holiday.

In 2026, Chinese New Year falls on Tuesday, 17 February. Here’s how the disruption typically unfolds:

Official Holiday Dates:

• Public holiday period: 17 February – 23 February 2026 (1 week)

• Some offices and government departments may close earlier and re-open later depending on local regulations.

Real Disruption Timeline:

Late December 2025 – Early January 2026

• Peak ordering season begins as businesses rush to meet production deadlines.

• Factories become selective, accepting orders only with guaranteed shipment timelines.

Mid January – Early February 2026

• Production slowdown begins. Many factories stop taking new orders by mid-January.

• Final shipments for ocean freight must be booked and dispatched no later than early February.

• Trucking availability tightens across key regions, especially in South China.

Week of 10 February 2026

• Last shipments move out before shutdown. Port congestion and customs delays are likely.

• Air freight demand spikes, especially for urgent cargo and high-value goods.

17–23 February 2026: Full Shutdown

• Majority of Chinese businesses close operations.

• Minimal logistics activity at ports, customs, trucking, and warehousing.

Late February – Early March 2026

• Factories begin a slow restart, with limited staff and backlogged orders.

• Logistics networks gradually resume, but expect residual port congestion and vessel rollovers.

Mid–Late March 2026

• Full production and shipping capacity resumes.

• Backlog from pre-holiday orders still clearing, with some knock-on effects into April.

Booking Deadlines (Indicative Only – Confirm with Your Freight Partner)

Note: Exact dates may vary by region, carrier, and supplier. Always confirm with your logistics partner for the most accurate cutoff schedules.

Major Supply Chain Impacts for Australia & New Zealand

For importers in Australia and New Zealand, the Chinese New Year period brings a sharp spike in risk across both ocean and air freight. Here’s how it typically plays out:

Ocean Freight Impacts

• Capacity tightens weeks in advance
  As Chinese factories rush to ship cargo before shutting down, bookings surge. Carriers often operate at full capacity 2–3 weeks before the holiday, making it harder to secure space—especially on high-demand routes into Oceania.

• Freight rates increase
  Spot rates generally rise due to limited space and high demand. Forwarders and carriers may introduce premium space options or peak season surcharges.

• Equipment shortages
  Container availability—particularly 40’HCs—tightens in key manufacturing hubs like Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Shanghai.

• Blank sailings and vessel rollovers
  After the holiday, carriers often cancel sailings due to backlogged ports or imbalanced demand. This causes delays for orders not shipped before the break.

Air Freight Impacts

• Pre-holiday urgency drives demand
  Importers who miss sea cutoffs often turn to air to protect timelines, especially for high-value or time-sensitive cargo like electronics, pharma, and retail goods.

• Rates spike in early February
  Limited capacity and increased demand push air freight prices higher. Airlines may prioritise express and premium-tier shipments.

• Reduced service post-holiday
  Similar to ocean freight, there’s a brief lull after the holiday as ground handling and customs staff gradually return to work, causing delays in cargo clearance.

Port & Inland Logistics Disruption

• Congestion at Chinese ports
  Port operations slow in the week before the holiday. Expect delays in cargo gate-ins, customs clearance, and vessel loading.

• Truck driver shortages
  Labour constraints begin early February as drivers head home. This makes it harder to move cargo inland—even if production is on schedule.

• Downstream delays in Australia and New Zealand
  Delays at origin often snowball into congestion at ANZ ports, particularly for consolidated (LCL) shipments and peak retail imports.

These ripple effects mean that even well-organised importers can face unexpected delays or cost spikes—especially if orders are placed late or routing options are limited. Proactive planning is essential.

Best Practices for ANZ Importers Planning for Chinese New Year

To avoid delays, cost blowouts, and inventory gaps, Australia and New Zealand importers need to plan well ahead of Chinese New Year. Below are practical steps to help reduce supply chain risk before, during, and after the holiday shutdown.

Place Purchase Orders Early

• Work backwards from your required delivery dates and factor in longer-than-usual lead times.

• Engage suppliers now to confirm production capacity and shipping availability.

• For high-volume or recurring SKUs, consider consolidating orders to ship earlier.

Book Freight in Advance

• Book FCL and LCL space at least 4–6 weeks in advance of your desired departure date.

• If using air freight, reserve space 2–3 weeks before the holiday week, especially for urgent or high-margin cargo.

• Request early space confirmation from your forwarder or shipping partner.

Prioritise Key Inventory

• Not all cargo is equal—identify your top-priority SKUs, especially if they’re seasonal, promotional, or essential to your supply chain.

• Communicate clearly with suppliers about which goods must leave before shutdown.

Maintain Buffer Stock Where Feasible

• For fast-moving SKUs or items with little supplier flexibility, carrying extra stock through Q1 may be worth the holding cost.

• Review sales forecasts and safety stock policies now to prepare for the gap in replenishment.

Strengthen Supplier Communication

• Stay closely aligned with factories, vendors, and agents to confirm:

  • Last production dates

  • Last available shipment dates

  • Restart schedules after the holiday

• Confirm that your partners understand your timelines and critical cargo list.

Consider Alternative Routing or Split Modes

• For urgent orders, explore air-sea combinations or transhipment options via Southeast Asia.

• This can offer better flexibility if direct China–ANZ space is constrained.

Risk Areas Importers Should Watch

Even with solid planning, Lunar New Year creates vulnerabilities that can catch ANZ importers off guard—especially those in fast-moving or inventory-sensitive sectors. Below are key risks to monitor in the lead-up to February 2026:

Industry-Specific Exposure

• Retail & Lifestyle Goods
  With Chinese New Year landing just after Australia's back-to-school period and ahead of Easter campaigns, delays can impact seasonal inventory availability.

• Automotive & Aftermarket
  Many components and accessories come from tiered supplier networks in China. A missed part can delay full product builds or servicing.

• FMCG & Consumer Electronics
  Products with high turnover or time-to-market sensitivity are more prone to stockouts if shipping windows are missed.

Extended Lead Times

• Lead times before and after CNY may stretch by 2–4 weeks, especially for LCL and consolidated cargo.

• Carriers and forwarders may prioritise full container bookings over smaller shipments.

Contract vs Spot Rate Exposure

• Importers on spot rates may face unexpected premium fees or lack of space.

• If you have fixed-rate contracts, clarify whether capacity is guaranteed during peak periods.

Supplier Labour Turnover

• After the holidays, some workers don’t return to their previous jobs, causing staffing shortages that slow production.

• Smaller suppliers may take weeks to return to full operating capacity—especially in inland regions.

Inventory & Cash Flow Pressure

• Holding buffer stock ties up working capital, but not holding enough can lead to lost sales.

• It's a delicate balance—review your replenishment model to find the right mix of agility and risk protection.

By watching these risk factors closely, ANZ importers can avoid surprises and keep their supply chains moving during one of the most complex periods on the global logistics calendar.

Key Takeaways

Chinese New Year 2026 presents predictable yet widespread disruption across supply chains—particularly for importers in Australia and New Zealand with strong trade dependencies on China.

By planning now, your business can stay ahead of delays, cost volatility, and stock shortages. Here’s what to prioritise:

• Place orders early and confirm production schedules with suppliers before the end of 2025

• Book freight space well in advance, particularly for FCL, LCL, and urgent air cargo

• Build buffer stock where feasible to bridge the replenishment gap

• Prioritise key SKUs and communicate shipment urgency clearly with your vendors

• Review supply contracts, lead times, and risk exposure—especially if relying on spot rates

• Stay alert to post-holiday production delays due to labour shortages or factory ramp-ups

• Explore alternative routing options (e.g. via Southeast Asia) or multimodal solutions for agility

At KLN Oceania, we work closely with our global partners to ensure our customers are informed and ready. We’re actively engaging with suppliers and carriers to design the best routes available and build realistic, proactive mitigation plans tailored to your supply chain needs.

If you’d like to discuss potential risks—or get support preparing for the Chinese New Year period—we invite you to get in touch with our team.

------------------------

Quick Reference: FAQs and Planning Tips for Chinese New Year 2026

What is the impact of Chinese New Year on supply chains?

Chinese New Year causes a coordinated shutdown of factories, ports, and logistics operations across China. This results in production halts, port congestion, trucking shortages, and delayed sea and air freight schedules.

When do Chinese factories close for Chinese New Year 2026?

While the official public holiday is 17–23 February 2026, many factories begin slowing or stopping production by mid-January and resume at full capacity only by mid-to-late March.

When should I place orders to avoid Chinese New Year disruption?

To avoid delays, place purchase orders by early January 2026. Book ocean freight space by mid-January and air freight no later than early February to ensure departure before the shutdown.

2026 Disruption Timeline

Key Risks for Importers in Australia and New Zealand

• Production halts and shipment delays

• Freight rate increases and container shortages

• Port congestion and limited inland transport

• Labour shortages during factory restart

• Missed delivery windows for seasonal or promotional goods

• Stockouts or overstocking due to poor timing

• Capacity constraints for LCL and air freight

Ocean Freight Impacts

• Full container bookings become scarce 2–3 weeks before the holiday

• Carriers introduce surcharges and blank sailings

• Container availability tightens in key ports (e.g. Ningbo, Shenzhen, Shanghai)

• LCL shipments may face rollovers and extended lead times

Air Freight Impacts

• Air cargo demand spikes as businesses seek urgent uplift

• Limited space and higher rates in early February

• Delays post-holiday due to ground handling and customs backlogs

Port and Inland Logistics Disruption

• Slower port operations in the week before the holiday

• Trucking shortages begin early February

• Downstream delays into Australia and New Zealand, especially for consolidated cargo

Best Practices to Minimise Risk

• Place orders by early January 2026

• Book FCL and LCL freight by mid-January

• Prioritise critical SKUs and communicate shipment urgency

• Hold buffer stock to cover Q1 demand

• Align timelines with suppliers and confirm production cutoffs

• Consider alternative routing or transhipment via Southeast Asia

• Revisit rate agreements and clarify peak period space guarantees

Indicative Freight Cut-Offs for Chinese New Year 2026

Note: Always confirm dates with your freight forwarder.

Final Takeaways for 2026

• Plan earlier than usual

• Lock in freight space now

• Expect longer lead times across all modes

• Protect your supply chain with buffer inventory and alternate routing

• Communicate frequently with your suppliers and freight forwarders

At KLN Oceania, we’re supporting customers through this high-risk period by:

• Monitoring capacity and port conditions

• Working with suppliers to optimise routing

• Creating realistic mitigation plans for ANZ supply chains

📩 Need help preparing for Chinese New Year 2026?

Why Partner with KLN (formerly Kerry Logistics Network)

Selecting KLN as your trusted partner isn't just a choice—it's a strategic move towards ensuring your success. Our commitment to excellence is not just a promise; it's a guarantee. With a global network that's both vast and meticulously managed, we stand head and shoulders above the competition. This means you benefit directly from unparalleled service quality, ensuring your supply chain needs are met with precision, efficiency, and minimal hassle.

Are you ready to elevate your logistics game and experience seamless support tailored to your unique needs? Let's discuss how we can bring unparalleled value to your business.