Konnect

KONNECT - APRIL 2026

Written by KLN Oceania | Mar 30, 2026 4:04:38 AM

Executive Summary

April arrives with March's disruptions firmly unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to routine commercial traffic — with only 142 transits recorded between 1 and 25 March against more than 2,600 in the same period last year — and there is no clear timeline for normalisation. Cape of Good Hope rerouting has become the default for Asia-Europe and Gulf-linked services, absorbing vessel capacity across the global network and compressing space on trades well beyond the Gulf corridor. Emergency surcharges are now a standard feature on freight invoices, oil peaked above USD 126 per barrel in March, and schedule reliability is deteriorating across both ocean and air as hubs and routing networks absorb an unprecedented level of structural disruption.

The air freight picture is equally constrained. Qatar Airways Cargo operations through Doha remain suspended. Emirates and Etihad have partially resumed, but global air cargo capacity was still approximately 12% below pre-conflict levels as of mid-March, with Gulf-adjacent and Asia-Europe lanes hit hardest. Fuel surcharges are being reviewed weekly rather than quarterly, and rates from South Asia to North America rose approximately 50% in the first two weeks of conflict. For time-sensitive or high-value freight, the cost and lead-time assumptions used in Q1 are no longer valid.

On the trade policy front, the US tariff landscape is in an active transition period. Section 122 tariffs remain in effect at 15%, IEEPA refund claims are moving through the courts, and Section 301 investigations across approximately 80 economies — including China, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian nations — are laying the groundwork for the next tariff framework before the Section 122 clock expires around mid-July. The window between regimes is likely to carry legal and commercial uncertainty that will require close monitoring through Q2 and Q3, particularly for supply chains with Southeast Asian production exposure.

Closer to home, cost pressures are intensifying. In Australia, the RBA delivered a second consecutive rate hike on 17 March, lifting the cash rate to 4.10%, as energy-driven inflation proved stickier than expected. Diesel prices rose approximately 88% between 2 and 27 March, prompting government intervention on fuel reserves, Fair Work protections for transport operators, and emergency industry coordination. Domestic freight costs are volatile and moving weekly. In New Zealand, the macro backdrop remains more accommodative — the RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% and February trade data came in better than expected — but the same energy shock risks delaying CPI's return within target. For Oceania supply chains, April demands sharper cost visibility, tighter compliance hygiene, and more frequent review cycles than most planning frameworks were built for.

Just a reminder, you can follow the updates for the impacts of the Middle East Disruption in our article here.

 

Business Tip

Treat emergency surcharges as a live cost line, not a fixed freight component. Emergency Bunker Surcharges, Transit Disruption Surcharges, and war-risk premiums are being adjusted by carriers at short notice, sometimes within weeks. Request written confirmation of validity windows and scope for every surcharge on your current invoices, and build a separate surcharge line into your landed-cost models for at least Q2. Grouping them into a single freight figure will mask true cost movements and create budget surprises.

KLN Oceania works with transparency and we can help you discuss strategies and support you in negotiations.

Spotlight

When Ocean Freight Is Too Unpredictable and Air Freight is Too Costly, there's a Smarter Middle Ground.

Ongoing disruptions through the Red Sea and rising instability around the Strait of Hormuz have reshaped what "reliable" looks like for European imports. Ocean freight transit times have stretched to upwards of 80 days from European ports, while full air freight remains out of reach for most cargo budgets.

KLN's Air-Sea solution bridges that gap — combining the speed of air with the economy of sea to give your supply chain a more predictable, cost-effective option.

Who should consider it?

This solution suits importers who need faster-than-ocean transit times but can't justify full air freight costs — particularly those moving time-sensitive but non-perishable cargo, or managing inventory gaps caused by the current routing volatility.

At a glance

  • Air leg: Daily flights from all major European airports into Hong Kong
  • Sea leg: Bi-weekly co-load options into Auckland and Lyttelton
  • Air leg transit: Approximately 5 working days to Hong Kong
  • Ocean leg transit: Standard sea transit onward to Australia and New Zealand

Interested in exploring whether Air-Sea is right for your cargo? Speak to our team for a tailored assessment.

Market Trend

March 2026 was defined by three converging disruptions: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving up energy costs and absorbing global vessel capacity; a fundamental shift in the US trade policy framework following the Supreme Court's February ruling; and sustained domestic inflationary pressure that pushed the RBA to a second consecutive rate increase. None of these situations resolved through March. All three are carrying into April with implications for planning, cost, and compliance.

 

Middle East Conflict: What Happened in March and Where It Stands

The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to routine commercial traffic throughout March. Between 1 and 25 March 2026, only 142 commercial transits were recorded through the strait, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence, compared with more than 2,600 in the same period in 2025. The scale of disruption is without precedent in modern commercial shipping.

Several developments shaped the month. In mid-March, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps established a tolled passageway using Iranian territorial waters, requiring vessels to submit documentation and seek approval before transit. Only 26 ships used this route between 13 and 25 March, and the last confirmed attack on a commercial vessel occurred on 19 March, when an offshore tug was struck near Ras Laffan, Qatar. Multiple countries deployed naval assets to the region during the month: France announced an escort mission under Operation Aspides on 9 March, India and Pakistan sent destroyers to the Gulf of Oman, and the US sent the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit to the region. Despite these efforts, the strait has not reopened to normal commercial volumes. Roughly 400 vessels were reported operating in holding patterns in the Gulf of Oman as of mid-March.

Oil prices surged to above USD 100 per barrel on 8 March before peaking above USD 126 per barrel — levels not seen in four years. Jet fuel costs have approximately doubled year on year, with immediate implications for carrier surcharge structures across both ocean and air. The disruption has been described as the largest to the global energy supply since the 1970s.

Where this stands entering April

  • Cape of Good Hope rerouting is now the dominant routing for Asia-Europe and Gulf-linked services, adding 10 to 14 days and 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles to affected voyages. This rerouting is absorbing functional vessel capacity across the global network, not just on Gulf corridors.
  • The IRGC toll route has no guarantee of safe passage. Carrier decision-making around whether to attempt transit continues to be made voyage by voyage, maintaining a high level of operational unpredictability.
  • Emergency Bunker Surcharges, war-risk premiums, and Transit Disruption Surcharges are now standard features of freight invoices on multiple trades, with the financial impact extending beyond Gulf-origin cargo.
  • Seven seafarer fatalities and multiple injuries have been confirmed, with approximately 20,000 seafarers estimated to be stranded on vessels unable to transit the strait.

What to do now: For any cargo with Middle East origins or destinations, seek routing alternatives immediately and confirm insurance coverage scope with your broker. For non-Gulf programmes, factor elevated fuel surcharges and transhipment hub congestion into April planning. Add at least two weeks of buffer to ETA commitments on any service with transhipment exposure, and build contingency routing for critical SKUs. You can keep informed of updates in our blog here.

 

US Trade Policy: What Changed in March and What It Means Now

The Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional in February. March was the month the consequences played out. On 4 March 2026, the US Court of International Trade issued a refund order, directing the government to return billions of dollars collected under IEEPA tariffs — with interest accruing at an estimated USD 650 million per month. More than 2,000 refund claims have been filed, including by major US importers such as FedEx, Costco, L'Oreal, Dyson, and Nissan North America. Some carriers have already signalled they will pass refunds through to customers who paid the tariffs.

Meanwhile, the replacement Section 122 tariffs — set at 10% on 20 February, raised to 15% (the statutory maximum) the following day — continued to operate through March. On 11 March, the administration announced Section 301 investigations into approximately 80 countries and economies including China, Japan, India, Mexico, and the European Union, establishing the procedural groundwork for a separate tariff authority that would not be subject to the same 150-day time limit as Section 122. Twenty-four US states filed lawsuits in March challenging the Section 122 tariffs, arguing that the statutory conditions for their use — a genuine balance-of-payments deficit — do not exist.

The 150-day clock on Section 122 began running from 20 February. Without congressional extension, these tariffs lapse around mid-July 2026. The parallel Section 301 investigation process requires agency findings before tariffs can be imposed under that authority, meaning the window between Section 122 expiry and new Section 301 tariffs taking effect — if they are introduced — is likely to be a period of legal and commercial uncertainty.

What this means for Oceania customers

  • If you trade into the US, landed costs are structurally more predictable under the uniform 15% Section 122 rate than they were under IEEPA's complex country-specific structure, but the time-limited nature of the regime means this stability is temporary. Review pricing and contract terms now while the current framework is clear.
  • If you were paying IEEPA tariffs, speak with your customs broker about refund eligibility. The CIT refund order covers virtually all importers who paid those charges, and the process is moving relatively quickly.
  • For ANZ importers sourcing from Asia (indirect exposure): Section 301 investigations into Southeast Asian countries are now formally under way. If they proceed to tariffs, this will affect sourcing economics for supply chains that shifted production out of China during the prior trade war. Watch this closely through Q2 and Q3.
  • De minimis restrictions remain in place. For any programme involving low-value, high-volume parcel flows into the US, data quality and entry-level compliance discipline are now baseline requirements.

 

Developments in Oceania

Australia's Economic Outlook

The RBA's tightening cycle accelerated in March, with the Board delivering a second consecutive 25 basis point rate hike at its 17 March meeting, lifting the cash rate to 4.10%. The decision was narrowly carried — five votes to four — with the majority citing inflationary capacity pressures that have proven stickier than expected. The Board acknowledged the Middle East conflict as an additional upside risk to inflation, noting that rising energy prices could feed through to broader price pressures even as the RBA prioritises returning inflation to the 2–3% target band.

Inflation data released on 25 March offered a marginally more encouraging picture. Annual CPI came in at 3.7% for the 12 months to February 2026 — slightly below January's 3.8% reading and a touch better than consensus. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying gauge, held at 3.3% year-on-year. Housing inflation remains a persistent pressure point, rising to 7.2% annually, with electricity costs up 37% over the same period as state energy rebates continued to expire.

The labour market stayed firm in February. Employment rose by 48,900 people — well above expectations — while the participation rate climbed to 66.9%, pushing the headline unemployment rate marginally higher to 4.3%. On a trend basis, conditions remain resilient, though economists note that higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty are emerging risks to the employment picture through the rest of 2026.

Major bank forecasts have shifted meaningfully. CBA has revised its inflation outlook upward, projecting headline CPI could reach around 5.4% by mid-2026 under its central energy-price scenario, with the trimmed mean peaking near 3.8%. ANZ and NAB are both forecasting a further hike in May to 4.35%, which they expect to mark the peak of the current cycle. Australia enters April 2026 with inflation still elevated, an energy shock layered on top of domestic demand pressures, and a policy path that remains tilted toward further restraint.

New Zealand's Economic Developments

New Zealand's policy settings remain in clear contrast to Australia's. The RBNZ held the OCR steady at 2.25% at its 18 February meeting, maintaining an accommodative stance as the economic recovery continues to gain traction — albeit unevenly. The Committee noted that spare capacity in the labour market remains substantial but is stabilising, and expressed confidence that annual CPI inflation — which reached 3.1% in the December 2025 quarter, just above the 1–3% target band — is most likely already returning within range in Q1 2026.

The February Monetary Policy Statement projected the OCR remaining at or near current levels through most of 2026, before gradually increasing as the recovery strengthens and inflation sustainably approaches the 2% midpoint. Wholesale rates beyond 12 months have risen as markets have begun pricing a modest tightening path. ANZ, Westpac, and BNZ all forecast at least one OCR increase by December 2026, with most settling on a range of 2.50–2.75% as the year-end level.

February trade data, released on 20 March, offered a positive signal. Goods exports rose 0.4% year-on-year to NZD 6.6 billion, with strong gains in meat and edible offal, precious metals, and ships and marine equipment. The monthly trade deficit narrowed sharply to NZD 257 million — well below the NZD 740 million markets had expected. Exports to the EU rose 15% and flows to Australia lifted 2.0%, while shipments to China fell 3.6% and to Japan fell 14%, underlining continued exposure to shifts in key bilateral relationships. Imports rose 12% to NZD 6.9 billion, partly reflecting increased electrical machinery and capital goods — a potential indicator of improving business investment sentiment.

NZIER's March quarterly forecasts note that the full impact of earlier OCR cuts is still flowing through as borrowers roll off higher fixed-rate mortgages — a dynamic supporting a recovery in household spending and investment intentions. However, the combination of emerging recovery and still-elevated headline inflation presents a delicate balancing act for the RBNZ as it navigates the path forward.

Trade & Industry Highlights

The regional trade framework continues to provide structural support. The upgraded AANZFTA remains fully operational and is actively shaping export patterns across Southeast Asia, while CPTPP and bilateral agreements continue to underpin preferential access across key markets. In the near term, however, geopolitical and energy risks are adding a new layer of complexity to the Oceania trade environment.

The escalation of the Middle East conflict from late February into March — and the resulting volatility in global energy markets — is emerging as a meaningful variable for both economies. In Australia, energy cost pressures are compounding an already above-target inflation environment, reinforcing the case for further rate hikes and adding strain to transport, freight, and supply chain operating costs. In New Zealand, the same energy shock could delay the anticipated return of headline CPI within target, potentially bringing forward RBNZ tightening earlier than current consensus expects.

For Oceania importers and exporters, the key planning implications as of April 2026 are: higher financing and operational costs in Australia as the tightening cycle deepens; a recovering but still-fragile demand environment in New Zealand, where the pace of the upturn remains sensitive to inflation and rate path expectations; and rising energy-driven cost pressures across both markets that will need to be factored into freight budgets, supplier contracts, and landed-cost modelling.

Ocean Freight Updates

  • Carriers' booking utilization sits at 80%-95% to both AU and NZ, with irregular blank sailings and cargo rolling
  • Due to space restrictions and the current situation in ME, some carriers are putting contract offers on hold.
  • COSCO shipments to AU Transshipment via Singapore are heavily congested, keep waiting times around 3-4 weeks in SIN, under their FIFO operational policy.

Cape Rerouting Tightens Global Capacity Through March

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, major carriers operated under Cape of Good Hope routing throughout March. The sustained diversion absorbed functional vessel capacity across the global network, with the knock-on effects felt across trades that have no direct Gulf exposure. Drewry's World Container Index rose 5% to USD 2,279 per 40ft container in the week of 26 March — a reflection of tighter available supply even as demand on some lanes remains moderate.

On Asia-Europe routes, spot rates rose sharply during March, with week-on-week increases of up to 20% reported in mid-March as the full capacity impact of Gulf diversion came through. On transpacific lanes, the picture was more subdued — underlying demand remained soft, limiting how far rates could climb — but emergency bunker surcharges were applied broadly, increasing total freight costs regardless of base rate levels. Asia-Oceania services were not immune. Booking utilisation on services to Australia and New Zealand remained elevated, Fremantle space tightened on several carrier services, and COSCO transhipment wait times at Singapore continued to run at three to four weeks under its FIFO policy.

What to do now

  • When reviewing freight quotes, distinguish between base freight, BAF, and emergency surcharges. The emergency surcharge layer is the most volatile and can be adjusted by carriers at short notice.
  • For services with transhipment exposure, add at least two weeks of contingency to ETA commitments. Hub congestion at Singapore, Colombo, and Port Klang is elevated as diverted volumes converge on alternative gateways.
  • Lock critical bookings early. Carriers are managing capacity actively, and space on preferred sailings is filling faster than headline utilisation figures might suggest.

Emergency Bunker Surcharges: Applied Broadly Across Carrier Networks

Brent crude peaked above USD 126 per barrel during early March before settling — still far above Q4 2025 levels. With jet fuel approximately double its year-ago price and marine fuel costs rising sharply, carriers moved quickly to apply Emergency Bunker Surcharges supplementing standard quarterly BAF rates. CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd announced charges of USD 70 to 75 per TEU for regional transits and USD 150 per TEU for long-haul voyages from 23 March. Maersk introduced an Emergency Bunker Surcharge from mid-March alongside a Transit Disruption Surcharge covering capacity constraints and rerouting costs. Standard BAF mechanisms are adjusted quarterly and cannot respond to the pace of fuel cost movement seen through March — meaning the emergency surcharge structure is the primary cost-recovery tool carriers are using right now.

What to do now: Request written confirmation of validity windows and applicable scope for any emergency surcharge included in a quote or invoice. Review contract terms to confirm how surcharge pass-through obligations work for standing programmes. Budget for elevated fuel-related accessorials at least through Q2 and reassess in line with oil price developments.

 

Blank Sailings Continue Into April: Capacity Discipline Maintained

Carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings as they balance Gulf rerouting disruption against structural overcapacity on major east-west trades. Blank sailings averaging around 10% capacity removal are expected to continue into April on transpacific lanes, where demand remains relatively soft. The mechanism matters for Oceania: cancelled eastbound sailings cancel corresponding westbound returns, which affects equipment positioning and schedule stability on connecting services. On Asia-Oceania specifically, carriers have maintained booking discipline — not through explicit capacity cuts on this trade, but through equipment redeployment and network adjustments that reduce the slack available to absorb delays elsewhere in the rotation.

What to do now: Book earlier than usual for priority sailings. In a market with active blanking, the gap between what is scheduled and what departs is wider. Plan buffer inventory for high-velocity SKUs where a rolled booking would trigger a stockout, and consider split shipments as a contingency for critical replenishment windows.

 

Fremantle Export Tightening: New Services Adding Options but Also Variability

Space out of Fremantle tightened across several services during March, with Maersk's South East Asia Service 2A reporting as fully booked into early March, and continued pressure on COSCO and OOCL westbound services. A stronger Australian dollar contributed to some grain exporters rolling bookings, creating uneven demand that can shift quickly if currency conditions change. For agricultural and resource exporters relying on consistent service frequency, this volatility in co-loading volumes adds scheduling complexity.

MSC's Eagle Service launched in March, providing direct weekly connectivity from Australian ports to the US East Coast via Panama, deploying eleven vessels on a rotation covering Philadelphia, Savannah, Freeport, Rodman, Papeete, Auckland, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Tauranga. CMA CGM has also expanded its Kangaroo Express Australia offering from the US East Coast. These services add routing options for US-bound programmes and may over time improve contingency flexibility, but new services typically require several weeks to bed in operationally before schedule reliability stabilises.

What to do now: Exporters out of Fremantle and other Australian ports should engage forwarders early on upcoming shipment windows. For US-bound programmes, confirm cut-offs and inland connections on new services before committing delivery promises to buyers. If your programme has currency sensitivity, monitor AUD movements and consider the impact on co-loading demand and space availability on export services.

 

Ocean Freight Snapshot (April 2026)

Check our snapshot for a quick glance at space, rate, equipment, and transit times for Oceania.

 

 

Air Freight Updates

Gulf Hub Disruption: How March Reshaped Global Air Cargo

The closure of key Gulf airspace and the suspension of operations at Doha — home to Qatar Airways Cargo, one of the world's largest air cargo carriers by capacity — drove the most significant disruption to global air freight seen in years. Gulf carriers Qatar Airways Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo, and Etihad together represent approximately 13% of global air cargo capacity, and their hubs sit at the geographic centre of east-west cargo flows between Asia, South Asia, Africa, and Europe.

The impact through March was measurable. According to WorldACD data, global airfreight traffic in the week ending 8 March fell 4% week on week and was 12% lower year on year. The Gulf and South Asia region saw the steepest declines — outbound Gulf volumes fell approximately 62% week on week against a 70% drop in capacity. Air cargo rates from South Asia to North America and Europe climbed approximately 50% within the first two weeks of the conflict. Asia-Europe rates were up 20% or more, with the TAC Baltic Air Freight Index recording continued wide variation across lanes depending on Gulf routing exposure as of the week ending 16 March. Sources cited by Air Cargo News were bracing for further increases as jet fuel surcharges — with jet fuel near double its year-ago price — had not yet been fully applied to many flights.

By late March, the UAE had opened safe air corridors enabling some capacity recovery. Emirates reports operating more than 50% of its scheduled flights, and Etihad has resumed limited services. Qatar Airways Cargo operations through Doha remain suspended. Cathay Pacific extended its suspension of flights to key Middle East destinations through March. Overall, global air cargo capacity remained approximately 12% below pre-conflict levels as of mid-March, with Asia Pacific to Middle East and Middle East to Europe lanes down around 40% over the same comparison period.

What this means for Australia and New Zealand customers

  • Asia-Europe air lanes that previously relied on Gulf hub connections are operating on extended routings with reduced frequency. Transit times are longer, rates are higher, and schedule reliability is lower. For time-critical cargo on these lanes, confirm routing alternatives and book with additional lead time.
  • Fuel surcharges on air freight are being reviewed weekly, not quarterly, by most carriers. Do not rely on fuel cost assumptions from earlier in the year when budgeting air freight for Q2.
  • For regular air programmes into or out of Asia, verify that your current carrier mix is not over-reliant on services that route through Gulf hubs. Pre-approve alternative options now rather than escalating in a disruption.

 

Rates and Capacity Through March: Lane-by-Lane Divergence

The market update for 25 March reflects conditions consistent with wider industry data: rates from China to the US West and East Coast were gradually rising through March, driven partly by rising oil prices and partly by competition for long-haul space as volumes displaced from Gulf routings sought alternative capacity. Belly cabin capacity from some Chinese origins remained constrained due to slow post-CNY ramp-back in certain East China regions. Freighter options were providing the earliest departure availability on key trades, with some corridors requiring six to seven days of advance booking and acceptance of flight splits.

The divergence between lanes is the defining feature of the March air market. Rates and capacity conditions on Gulf-adjacent lanes look nothing like conditions on, say, China-Australia direct routes, where space has been more readily available. For shippers managing multiple origin and destination corridors, this means the market requires lane-level management rather than a single blanket view.

What to do now: Use air strategically for launches, promotional windows, or exception recovery. For urgent shipments on Gulf-impacted lanes, book as far in advance as possible and prepare documentation in advance. Keep documentation ready to avoid clearance delays adding to extended transit times.

 

De Minimis Compliance: Data Quality Now a Lead-Time Driver

The suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value shipments into the US remains in effect following the Supreme Court's February ruling. In practice, this means more shipments require individual entry-level declarations rather than bulk manifest processing — sharply increasing the compliance workload on high-volume, multi-SKU, parcel-style air flows. Brokers and freight operators have invested in automation to handle the volume, but accuracy remains a human responsibility: HS codes, product descriptions, shipper and consignee data, and declared values need to be correct before the shipment moves, not corrected at customs.

What to do now: Tighten product master data quality across all SKUs that may move on air into the US. Accurate HS codes, complete product descriptions, and consistent party information are now lead-time drivers. Build additional buffer into e-commerce and parcel-style programmes until the increased processing burden is absorbed into normal cycle times.

Air Freight Snapshot (April 2026)

 

Customs, Inland Transport, Terminal and Regulation Updates

 

AUS: Fuel crisis drives emergency action across road transport

The Middle East conflict has triggered a severe fuel price shock across Australian supply chains. Diesel prices rose approximately 67% from late February into March 2026, with national average terminal gate prices reaching around 295.8 cents per litre by late March and South Australia breaching the $3/litre mark. Fuel now accounts for 25–35% of road freight operating costs, and for many smaller operators running thin contract margins, the spike is an existential pressure, not just a cost inconvenience.

The federal government has moved quickly to stabilise supply and support the industry. Key actions taken through March include: a temporary 20% reduction in the Minimum Stockholding Obligation for diesel and petrol, releasing up to 762 million litres of additional fuel into the market; a six-month adjustment to lower the flashpoint standards for diesel, widening import options from refineries in the US, Canada and Europe; and the appointment of a Fuel Security Taskforce Coordinator to oversee national supply chain response. The government also granted interim authorisation to the Australian Institute of Petroleum to coordinate supply chain responses industry-wide.

On 24 March 2026, the government announced it would amend the Fair Work Act to allow truck drivers and road transport businesses to make emergency applications for contract chain orders immediately, removing the previous six-month waiting period. This allows operators to seek enforceable protections against being locked into contract rates that no longer reflect actual fuel costs. 

Transport fuel surcharges have increased 7.5–10% across the sector since mid-March, with Coles and Woolworths shifting to fortnightly fuel levy reviews to support their carrier networks. The ACCC has also launched an enforcement investigation into allegations of anti-competitive conduct relating to diesel availability for independent wholesalers in regional Australia.

For importers and exporters relying on domestic last-mile or linehaul movements, fuel surcharges should be treated as a live and frequently moving variable. Review your freight contracts for fuel adjustment clauses, confirm whether surcharges are being applied with proper notice, and align internally with procurement and finance teams on landed cost assumptions through at least Q2 2026.

 

AUS: Diesel prices up ~88% since early March — government response escalates

As of 27 March 2026, diesel Terminal Gate Prices have risen by approximately 87–88% across all Australian capital cities since 2 March, with the week of 20–27 March alone adding a further 6.87% on average. Per-city increases from 2 to 27 March stand at: Sydney 87.53%, Melbourne 87.50%, Brisbane 87.46%, Adelaide 87.26%, and Perth 88.16%.

The Container Transport and Allied Associations (CTAA) has been participating in ongoing Federal and State Government briefings, including a session with Federal Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Catherine King on 26 March and a National Coordination Mechanism meeting on 27 March. Key signals from those briefings:

National fuel stocks are holding at approximately 30 days of diesel supply, and fuel continues to arrive in Australia. However, supply certainty beyond the end of April is less clear, as around 30% of crude oil feeding Asian refineries — including Singapore, which is a primary refining source for both Australia and New Zealand — originates from the Middle East. Normalisation of supply, even once the conflict eases, is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.

Demand remains elevated due to panic buying, contributing to localised outages, particularly for independent distributors and regional areas. Major fuel companies are prioritising contracted customers and their own retail networks, squeezing spot buyers out of supply.

Government actions confirmed through 28 March include: release of 762 million litres from Australia's strategic reserves targeted at regional spot market needs; a temporary reduction in diesel flashpoint standards to widen supply options; a Joint Energy Security Statement with Singapore reaffirming fuel and LNG supply commitments; and a Prime Minister announcement on 28 March of planned amendments to the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation Act to underwrite additional strategic cargo reserves.

The road transport industry is also pushing for a temporary removal of the Road User Charge on heavy vehicles — worth 32.4 cents per litre — to provide immediate cash flow relief to operators. Legislation to allow emergency Fair Work Commission fuel price orders has passed the lower house and is being considered by the Senate.

For importers and exporters, the practical implication is straightforward: domestic cartage costs remain highly volatile and will continue to shift week to week. Any freight budget built before early March 2026 should be revisited, fuel surcharge clauses in transport contracts should be confirmed, and supply chain managers should be tracking whether their 3PL or cartage providers are absorbing cost pressure that could create service reliability risks in the weeks ahead.

 

AUS: Hutchison Ports (Sydney & Brisbane) — landside charge increases from 20 April 2026

Hutchison Ports Australia has issued notice of increases to landside and ancillary charges at its Sydney and Brisbane container terminals, effective 20 April 2026. Increases vary by fee type and cover infrastructure levies, terminal access charges, and ancillary fees, reflecting ongoing operational cost pressures at both terminals.

For importers and exporters using Hutchison facilities in Sydney or Brisbane, these changes will affect the all-in cost per container. When budgeting current and forward import programs, ensure terminal charges are modelled separately from ocean freight and are updated to reflect the April tariff revision. Confirm the specific fee schedule with your freight forwarder or customs broker ahead of the effective date.

 

AUS: BMSB season closing 30 April 2026 — and Ro-Ro surveillance continues

The 2025–26 Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) season closes on 30 April 2026, based on the shipped-on-board date on the ocean bill of lading. Mandatory treatment requirements for target high-risk goods shipped from the 41 designated risk countries — covering much of Europe, North America, and parts of Asia — will no longer apply to shipments with an on-board date after 30 April.

However, Ro-Ro vessel surveillance is extended. All roll-on roll-off vessels that berthed, loaded, or transhipped from target risk countries between 1 September 2025 and 30 June 2026 are required to undergo mandatory seasonal pest inspections on arrival in Australian territory. This applies to the vessel, not the cargo, but can still affect arrival timelines and scheduling.

For any shipments straddling the season end date, the shipped-on-board date is the determining factor — not the arrival date or container gate-in date. If you are importing vehicles, machinery, metal goods, or other target high-risk commodities from Europe, the US, Japan, or Korea, confirm treatment status and documentation with your supplier and broker before cargo is loaded.

 

AUS: Melbourne Intermodal Terminal now operational — rail incentive available

Australia's largest intermodal terminal, the Melbourne Intermodal Terminal (MIT) at Somerton, commenced freight train services in late 2025 and is now fully operational. The $400 million facility is located approximately 20 kilometres from the Port of Melbourne by rail and sits adjacent to the Hume Freeway with direct access to both Victorian and interstate rail networks.

To encourage take-up, the Port of Melbourne has launched a Port Rail Shuttle Network Start-up Incentive Program offering $100 per TEU and $200 per FEU for import containers moved by rail from the port to the MIT. The terminal also provides customs-bonded storage, empty container processing, and on-site wash, fumigation, and repair facilities — positioning it as a one-stop-shop for importers with high container volumes through Melbourne.

For businesses with warehousing or distribution centres in Melbourne's northern corridor, this is a meaningful optionality shift. Rail-based linehaul from port reduces reliance on congested inner-Melbourne road routes, can lower per-unit cartage costs at scale, and supports sustainability reporting. Review whether the MIT fits your supply chain geometry and whether the current incentive structure makes the modal shift commercially viable now.

 

NZ: New Customs and MPI border levy structure — effective 1 April 2026

From 1 April 2026, New Zealand Customs and the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) are implementing a significant restructuring of goods management levies. The changes move to a full cost-recovery model, removing taxpayer subsidies and cross-subsidies that have applied to certain import and export pathways.

Key changes that will affect importers and exporters directly:

  • Low-value goods (consignments valued at NZD 1,000 or below) will now be charged on a per-consignment basis rather than per cargo report. Businesses that previously consolidated multiple shipments under a single entry will see individual levies apply to each consignment — a change with cumulative cost implications for high-frequency, low-value shipping models including e-commerce.

  • Separate levy rates now apply for air and sea pathways, reflecting differences in Customs' actual processing costs. A new levy also applies to empty shipping containers imported into New Zealand for international cargo movement.

  • The Biosecurity System Entry Levy (BSEL) charged by MPI will also be restructured in line with these changes. Importers should confirm with their customs broker how the new levy lines will appear on clearance invoices from April, and brief finance and procurement teams accordingly so that April clearances — including any March cargo arriving after the 1st — do not generate unexpected cost variances.

 

NZ: BMSB — season end and vessel surveillance

New Zealand's BMSB seasonal measures align closely with Australia's, with the shipped-on-board cut-off also at 30 April 2026. Targeted goods from risk countries — vehicles, machinery, parts, and related commodities — shipped after this date will no longer be subject to mandatory treatment requirements for the 2025–26 season.

In New Zealand, sea containers imported from Italy remain subject to BMSB targeting regardless of season, given persistently elevated pest populations in that country. Acceptable treatment methods include heat treatment (56°C for at least 30 minutes for standard goods) and approved chemical treatments applied by DAFF/MPI-approved providers.

For shipments already in transit with a pre-30 April shipped-on-board date, ensure treatment certificates and compliance documentation are in order before arrival to avoid inspection delays and potential onshore treatment costs.