The second half of 2025 begins with continued volatility in global freight markets. U.S. tariff fluctuations have created sharp swings in demand, with early-year slowdowns giving way to a mid-year surge that strained carrier capacity and drove rate spikes across key trade lanes. Asia–Oceania routes are now facing rising congestion and tightened space, as vessels are repositioned to support frontloading efforts into the U.S. ahead of tariff reinstatement deadlines. Short-term contracts and premium rates are dominating negotiations as shippers seek flexibility in an increasingly uncertain environment.
Carrier alliances and service structures continue to evolve, with the Gemini Cooperation leading in schedule reliability, while MSC and others adjust independently. In parallel, pressure from port congestion across Europe and Asia, Red Sea disruptions, and volatile oil prices are all influencing rate and schedule dynamics. Amid this complexity, shippers in Oceania must contend with capacity constraints, frequent blank sailings, and mounting GRIs—particularly from Northeast and Southeast Asia. ZIM’s exit from New Zealand and increased congestion in transhipment hubs like Singapore and Chittagong underscore the need for contingency planning.
The air freight sector is similarly strained. Rising tensions in the Middle East have disrupted airspace access, rerouted major trade flows, and triggered capacity reductions from key airports including Dhaka and Shanghai. Meanwhile, freighter operators are pulling back from the China–U.S. lane in anticipation of renewed tariffs, redirecting capacity to more stable corridors. For exporters and importers alike, modal flexibility and proactive space management are crucial to maintaining delivery schedules.
Closer to home, Australia and New Zealand are cautiously optimistic on the economic front. Interest rates have eased, inflation is trending within target ranges, and investment efforts in infrastructure and trade diversification are gaining momentum. However, evolving customs regulations, new fee structures, and compliance updates—such as ISPM 15, khapra beetle protocols, and document processing changes—will demand close attention. The remainder of 2025 will reward businesses that combine cost awareness with strong supplier relationships and operational agility.
Prioritise agility in both planning and execution: With ocean and air freight markets shifting rapidly due to tariffs, capacity reallocations, and geopolitical disruptions, being able to pivot quickly is critical. This means reviewing routing options frequently, keeping booking windows flexible, and ensuring your procurement and logistics teams are aligned on response strategies. Agility now can mean fewer delays and better cost control in a volatile second half of the year.
KLN Oceania can help you discuss strategies and support you in negotiations.
A Rocky Start to 2025
We came into this year hoping for more stability after the disruption of 2024. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. Instead, we’ve seen new layers of complexity emerge—particularly around U.S. trade policy and rising geopolitical tensions. The biggest headline so far? Widespread tariffs introduced by the U.S., including a steep 145% levy on Chinese goods.
The result has been significant swings in shipping demand. After volumes dropped sharply in early 2025, they bounced back just as quickly as companies rushed to move goods before temporary tariff pauses expired. These shifts are pushing up spot rates again and creating uncertainty across global trade lanes—including those connected to Oceania.
Rate Spikes, Short-Term Strategies
If you're managing freight contracts, now’s the time to keep a close eye on rate movements. Frontloading activity is already driving spot rates above long-term agreements on several major lanes. However, this won’t last forever—carriers are quickly reallocating capacity, which could lead to a reversal in rates.
If you’re considering a new long-term deal, it might be wise to wait—or opt for shorter terms—until things settle.
Red Sea: Not Over Yet
While the Red Sea conflict isn’t making as many headlines lately, its impact is still very real. Carriers continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, and while there’s talk of a return to normal routes, most industry players remain cautious. If vessels do resume using the Suez Canal later this year, we could see freight rates fall fast as extra capacity re-enters the market.
Whether or not a full return happens in 2025, it’s worth making sure your contracts allow for Red Sea surcharges to be adjusted—or removed—if the situation improves.
Global Capacity: Growth Creates Opportunity
Fleet growth is still on the cards this year, but not at the breakneck pace we saw in 2024. What’s interesting is how carriers are managing their fleets. Some are delaying deliveries, while others are holding onto older vessels longer than planned because market conditions are still favourable.
This creates opportunity for shippers. If you know which carriers are facing more pressure to absorb new capacity, that can give you an edge during negotiations.
Carrier Shakeups: Alliances & US Port Fees
The structure of global shipping alliances has changed significantly in 2025. We’ve seen the launch of new partnerships like Gemini (Maersk + Hapag-Lloyd), while MSC has chosen to go it alone. At the same time, the U.S. is introducing port fees that could increase costs for ships built in China or operated by Chinese carriers.
This matters for Oceania importers. It’s not just about rates anymore—it’s about understanding how your carrier’s exposure to tariffs and fees could impact the total cost of service.
Sustainability: Still Relevant, Even Under Pressure
Sustainability has taken a bit of a backseat this year, but it’s not going away. The EU’s emissions trading scheme is expanding, and new IMO regulations are on the horizon. Even if you're not shipping to or from Europe, the ripple effects will be felt globally.
Many carriers now provide emissions performance data, so it’s worth including carbon metrics in your procurement strategy—especially when service and pricing between carriers are similar.
Takeaways for Oceania Importers
We are closely monitoring the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and its growing impact on key global trade routes—including the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and surrounding Middle East airspace.
This situation introduces structural risk across both ocean and air freight, with ripple effects now being felt in Australia and New Zealand’s inbound and outbound supply chains.
Here’s what you need to know:
At KLN Oceania, we’re working closely with suppliers to develop the best available routing strategies and build realistic mitigation plans to safeguard your supply chain.
For a deeper dive into what’s happening, what to watch, and how to respond strategically:
🔗 Supply Chain Risks Amid Middle East Tensions
Transpacific container shipping rates have experienced a sharp decline, with spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast dropping by 20% and those to the East Coast falling by 13% in the past week alone. This marks a cumulative 40% decrease over the last two weeks, effectively erasing gains from the earlier 'phantom peak' season.
Key Developments:
Exporters in Australia and New Zealand are facing constrained ocean freight options due to ongoing liner consolidation, even as demand for exports continues to grow. This situation is prompting a shift towards air cargo solutions, particularly for trade with Asia.
Key Developments:
Implications for Exporters:
As the shipping industry continues to evolve, staying informed and adaptable will be key for exporters aiming to maintain competitiveness in global markets.
In June 2025, transpacific container freight rates experienced a sharp decline due to a sudden influx of shipping capacity. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a nearly 27% drop in rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast, bringing them down to $4,120 per 40-foot container. Actual market rates have reportedly fallen even further, nearing $3,000 per 40-foot container.
Key Factors:
Implications:
U.S. container imports from the Far East to North America experienced a significant decline in April 2025, dropping 13.4% compared to the same period in 2024. This downturn follows the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which led to a 10% reduction in transpacific shipments for the month, according to Container Trade Statistics (CTS)
Key Factors Contributing to the Decline:
Implications for the Shipping Industry:
As the trade landscape continues to evolve, stakeholders across the supply chain must remain agile, monitoring policy developments and adapting strategies to navigate the complexities introduced by the recent tariff changes.
The Gemini Cooperation, a strategic alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launched in February 2025, has emerged as a leader in global liner schedule reliability. In May 2025, global on-time performance (OTP) reached its highest level in 18 months, with the Gemini partners outperforming other alliances and carriers.
Key Highlights:
Implications for Oceania:
The Gemini Cooperation's commitment to schedule reliability and adaptability positions it as a significant player in the evolving global shipping landscape.
Bangladesh's primary maritime gateway, Chittagong Port, is currently experiencing significant congestion due to a combination of labor strikes and an overwhelming accumulation of containers. As of mid-June 2025, approximately 14 container ships are anchored offshore, awaiting berthing slots for up to five days. The port's storage yards are operating at 80% capacity, with around 37,000 TEUs clogging the terminals.
The situation has been exacerbated by a recent incident on February 4, where a truck driver was assaulted by security personnel near the DC Park recreation area. This event sparked widespread protests among transport workers, leading to blockades and a halt in container movements. Despite temporary interventions by military and government officials, the unrest persisted, with drivers demanding legal immunity and the closure of the park.
Key Impacts:
Australia's Economic Outlook
Australia's economic landscape is marked by cautious optimism amid global trade tensions. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 3.85% in June, following earlier cuts from a peak of 4.35%, responding to moderating inflation and a slowing economy . Inflation expectations rose to 5% in June from 4.1% in May, indicating potential concerns about future price stability.
The housing market continues to show resilience, with national home prices increasing by 0.4% in June, marking a 4.6% rise over the past year. This surge has made housing less affordable, with first-home buyers now requiring an additional $8,180 to save for a standard 20% deposit .
New Zealand's Economic Developments
New Zealand's economy is gradually recovering from a protracted downturn. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% in May, marking the sixth consecutive rate cut since August. The central bank now forecasts the rate to reach 2.92% by Q4 2025 and 2.85% in Q1 2026 . Inflation remains within the 1%-3% target band at 2.5%, providing the RBNZ with flexibility to support economic growth.
The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.2% mid-year before gradually decreasing to 4.3% by the end of the forecast period . Additionally, New Zealand posted a monthly trade surplus of NZ$1.235 billion in May, with exports totaling NZ$7.68 billion
Trade and Industry Highlights
Australia's trade dynamics are influenced by global uncertainties. The country's mining and energy export earnings are projected to decline over the next two years, influenced by trade policy uncertainties, lower commodity prices, and a weak global economy. The resources earnings are estimated at A$385 billion for 2024–25, down from A$415 billion in 2023–24, and are expected to fall further to A$369 billion in 2025–26.
In New Zealand, the government has passed legislation to establish Invest New Zealand, a new investment attraction agency set to begin operations on 1 July 2025. This initiative aims to attract more international capital, businesses, and talent into the country, thereby boosting economic growth.
These developments underscore both countries' efforts to navigate economic challenges through monetary policy adjustments and strategic trade initiatives.
1. Rate Increases and Capacity Constraints
2. Northeast Asia Rate Overview (July 1–14)
3. Southeast Asia Rate Snapshot
4. Port Congestion and Operational Challenges
Strategic Recommendations
Key Update
Due to the complex routing and competitive challenges, ZIM has been unable to sustain its offering compared to more stable and direct services into New Zealand.
Final Voyages to New Zealand
CMA CGM is cautiously testing a return to the Suez Canal by rerouting select vessels from its Europe-Pakistan-India Consortium (EPIC) service, marking one of the first steps by a major carrier to resume operations through the region since Houthi-related disruptions forced widespread detours around the Cape of Good Hope. This move signals growing confidence in canal security—though only one of ten vessels in the rotation is currently transiting via Suez.
The decision is partly driven by the Suez Canal Authority’s recent 15% rebate incentive aimed at enticing carriers back. Despite the rebate, carriers must still weigh the risks associated with the Red Sea against the benefits of reduced transit time and fuel costs. CMA CGM’s slow reintroduction strategy suggests caution remains high, and wider adoption by other carriers will likely depend on continued improvements in maritime safety.
For Oceania importers and exporters, the implications are twofold. A broader shift back to Suez routes could ease pressure on global shipping networks and restore some schedule stability. However, routing unpredictability and potential cost swings may persist in the short term. Staying agile with routing plans and maintaining close contact with logistics partners remains essential.
A significant uptick in bookings from China to regions such as Sri Lanka has led to increased freight rates and port congestion. Hans-Henrik Nielsen, Global Development Director at CargoGulf, highlighted this surge as a catalyst for general rate increases (GRIs) and subsequent logistical challenges.
This trend mirrors earlier congestion issues at major Chinese ports like Shenzhen's Yantian Port, where exporters rushed shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year and potential U.S. tariffs, resulting in extended truck wait times and increased fees.
Implications for Oceania:
Staying informed and maintaining flexibility in logistics planning will be crucial for navigating the evolving shipping landscape during this period of heightened demand and shifting capacities.
European ports, particularly those along the Hamburg–Le Havre range, are grappling with severe congestion, a situation that experts warn could extend for several years. Factors contributing to this crisis include labor strikes, infrastructure limitations, and the ripple effects of global trade disruptions.
Key Highlights:
Implications for Oceania:
Despite persistent congestion at major North European ports, container shipping lines have achieved notable improvements in schedule reliability. In May, schedule reliability to the region saw a marked improvement.
Check our snapshot for a quick glance on space, rate, equipment and transit times for Oceania
As the July 9 tariff deadline looms, air cargo carriers are significantly reducing capacity on the China–U.S. route. This strategic withdrawal is in response to declining demand and heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. The suspension of the de minimis exemption has further impacted e-commerce shipments, leading to a notable decrease in airfreight volumes.
In contrast, other Asian markets are experiencing a surge in demand as shippers seek to capitalize on the 90-day tariff suspension for non-Chinese goods. This shift has prompted carriers to reallocate capacity to more profitable routes, leaving the China-U.S. corridor with diminished service levels.
Implications for Stakeholders:
Staying informed about policy changes and maintaining flexibility in logistics planning will be crucial for navigating the evolving trade landscape.
Current Situation:
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) has released an important update regarding treatment certificates for goods treated in China. These changes streamline the documentation process and affect a range of import and shipping stakeholders.
What’s Changed:
Accepted Treatment Certificates for Goods Treated in China:
Important Note:
Further Information:
You can read the full government notice here:
🔗 DAFF Industry Advice Notice 200-2025
We recommend reviewing your documentation processes to ensure ongoing compliance with these updated requirements.
As of 28 May 2025, Australia has updated the offshore treatment and phytosanitary conditions for managing the risk of khapra beetle. These changes apply only to goods and containers that were already subject to khapra treatment requirements—no additional commodities have been added to the list.
When Is Treatment Mandatory?
Treatment is required only if your goods or containers meet one or more of the following criteria and are exported from a khapra beetle target risk country:
Action for Importers
If you're importing from a khapra risk country, double-check your commodity lists and container unpacking destinations. Ensure that treatments are in line with the updated rules to avoid delays or non-compliance issues.
Avoid Delays and Additional Costs
We’re seeing a growing number of cargo shipments arriving at the Container Freight Station (CFS) non-compliant with ISPM 15 regulations, causing avoidable delays and extra handling charges. In particular, cargo arriving fully shrink-wrapped is creating compliance issues—CFS teams are unable to verify whether wood packaging has been used or if the required ISPM 15 stamps are present and visible.
What You Need to Know
If wood packaging is used:
Your Responsibility as Shipper
It is the shipper’s responsibility to ensure cargo meets ISPM 15 standards. Non-compliant cargo risks:
Make sure your packing processes comply with international standards. For full guidelines and destination-specific requirements, please visit the website – Wood Packaging for Export.
Staying compliant not only protects your cargo but also helps keep supply chains moving efficiently.
From 1 July 2025, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) will enforce updated payment requirements for document assessment fees submitted via the Cargo Online Lodgement System (COLS). This change affects all importers and customs brokers using COLS for biosecurity assessment of imported cargo.
Key Points to Note:
Double-check your lodgement procedures and make sure payment systems are aligned with the new requirement. For full details on the fee updates and biosecurity cost recovery implementation, visit:
🔗 Biosecurity Cost Recovery Implementation Statements – DAFF
This small change can help avoid processing delays and maintain smooth cargo clearance through the Australian border.