We are now KLN.
Kerry Logistics Network Limited has rebranded to KLN Logistics Group Limited. This strategic move aims to establish a more unified corporate identity and strengthen the company's brand positioning in the global logistics market. This change reflects the company's commitment to evolving its operations and services.
You can learn more about our rebranding here.
Trade policy volatility remains front and center this month, with the U.S. enacting sweeping new tariff measures—including a universal 10% import tariff and a 145% rate on Chinese goods—causing market shockwaves. Shipping volumes from China to the U.S. have dropped by up to 60%, triggering vessel redeployments and blanked sailings across key transpacific routes. Although a preliminary U.S.-China agreement has offered a temporary reprieve, the broader outlook remains uncertain, pushing manufacturers and retailers globally to recalibrate their sourcing and logistics plans.
Ocean freight markets are contending with widening overcapacity and intensifying blank sailing strategies as demand softens post–Chinese New Year. The Drewry WCI dipped again this month, while congestion persists at key transshipment hubs like Singapore and Busan. The Gemini Cooperation continues to outperform peers on schedule reliability, with its 90%+ performance helping offset wider market disruption. Meanwhile, new capacity at Bangladesh’s Chittagong port opens fresh sourcing opportunities, particularly for garment and textile importers in Oceania.
In Oceania, economic sentiment remains cautious. Australia is navigating inflation expectations and preparing assistance packages in response to the global trade reset, while New Zealand continues to stimulate growth through monetary easing and renewed FTA negotiations. Both countries are intensifying their regional trade engagement through AANZFTA and India talks. Infrastructure upgrades, such as Auckland’s rail and terminal improvements, aim to future-proof operations but are also triggering short-term freight bottlenecks.
Air freight markets are under pressure. The U.S. has removed the de minimis exemption for Chinese e-commerce parcels, prompting a 30% fall in Asia–U.S. air cargo volumes and forcing global airlines to ground capacity or reroute fleets. In contrast, demand from the semiconductor sector and alternative sourcing regions is beginning to rebalance the picture. Airfreight providers are closely watching these dynamics as volatility becomes the new norm.
Compliance pressures are growing for Oceania-based importers, with changes to khapra beetle and methyl bromide protocols in Australia and customs fee increases on the horizon in New Zealand. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and South Asia remain active risk factors. As supply chains realign, agility and proactive planning are becoming critical to maintain stability in a landscape increasingly shaped by political shifts and economic recalibration.
In times of shifting trade policy, focus on options: Diversify shipping lanes, supplier bases, and contract structures to keep your freight strategy responsive. With capacity tightening and tariff regimes changing fast, businesses that secure flexible rate agreements and stay engaged with logistics partners are better positioned to weather disruption and capture new market opportunities.
KLN Oceania can help you discuss strategies and support you in negotiations.
If you would like to discuss how our services can add to your supply chain, feel free to reach out:
As we progress through May 2025, the ocean freight industry continues to grapple with a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and evolving market dynamics.
Red Sea and Suez Canal Developments
The Red Sea remains a focal point of concern. Despite a recent ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen's Houthi militia, major shipping lines remain cautious about resuming operations through the Suez Canal. The region has experienced a significant decline in maritime traffic—down 60%—since late 2023 due to security threats. While the ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope, the ambiguous terms and ongoing risks have led companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to prioritize crew safety and maintain rerouted services around the Cape of Good Hope.
Tariffs and Trade Tensions
Trade policies are exerting considerable influence on shipping patterns. The U.S. has implemented steep tariffs, including a 145% rate on Chinese imports, leading to a 30-40% drop in U.S.-China shipping volumes in April. This rapid shift has prompted carriers to redeploy vessels to other routes with more stable demand. Additionally, the U.S. Trade Representative has proposed imposing fees of up to $1.5 million per port visit on Chinese-built ships, further complicating the trade landscape.
The U.S. administration's implementation of the "Liberation Day" tariffs has introduced significant volatility into global trade. Announced on April 2, 2025, these tariffs include a universal 10% levy on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries—China facing up to 145%. While shippers express concerns over the unpredictability and potential disruptions, freight forwarders are leveraging their expertise to navigate the evolving landscape.
On April 9, 2025, a 90-day suspension of new tariffs was announced for most countries, while tariffs on Chinese imports were increased to a cumulative rate of 145% . This abrupt policy change has left industries struggling to adapt, with many describing the environment as "not a great environment to plan."
The unpredictability of these tariff changes has had a ripple effect across various sectors. Manufacturers and distributors are facing challenges in supply chain management, financial planning, and strategic decision-making . The aerospace industry, for instance, is experiencing delays and confusion in aircraft deliveries due to fluctuating tariff policies . Similarly, the steel industry, while benefiting from certain tariff protections, is contending with the suspension of federal climate grants, adding another layer of complexity to their operations .
Despite initial market turmoil, including a 15% drop in the S&P 500 , recent developments suggest a potential easing of tensions. The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement following negotiations in Geneva, aiming to resolve the ongoing trade war . However, the U.S. maintains a baseline 10% tariff on foreign goods, indicating a continued emphasis on protectionist policies
Market Rates and Capacity
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has continued its downward trend, decreasing 1% to $2,076 per 40-foot container as of May 8. This figure is 80% below the pandemic peak but remains 46% higher than the pre-pandemic average in 2019. The market is experiencing an oversupply of capacity, with new vessel deliveries outpacing demand growth. Analysts forecast that global container volumes may see modest growth of 3-4% in 2025, while fleet capacity is expected to expand by 5%, necessitating strategic capacity management by carriers.
Bunker Fuel Prices
Global oil prices have plunged to four-year lows, influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production and a global economic slowdown. Brent crude prices have dipped below $60 a barrel, a significant decrease from over $100 observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This decline has yet to fully translate to lower fuel costs for shipping, but it offers potential relief in the form of reduced bunker fuel expenses .
Operational Strategies and Alliances
In response to these challenges, carriers are implementing various strategies to maintain profitability. The Gemini Cooperation, a new alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, aims to enhance schedule reliability and operational efficiency. By streamlining port calls and leveraging larger vessels, the alliance seeks to improve on-time performance, which currently hovers around 55%.
Implications for Oceania:
For businesses in Oceania, the U.S. tariff changes could have a dual impact. On the one hand, increased tariffs might make U.S. markets less attractive for certain imports and exports, forcing companies to diversify their supply chains.
On the other hand, higher costs imposed on competitors from other regions could create opportunities for Oceania-based exporters to gain a competitive edge in markets less affected by such policies. Companies should therefore stay informed and be ready to adjust sourcing and shipping strategies in response to these developments.
Recommendations:
The Gemini Cooperation, a strategic alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launched in February 2025, has rapidly distinguished itself in the global shipping industry by achieving exceptional schedule reliability. In its initial months, Gemini reported a 94% on-time performance at origin ports in February and maintained a 90.3% reliability rate across all arrivals in March, significantly outperforming other major alliances such as Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance.
This impressive performance is attributed to Gemini's focused network strategy, which includes reducing the number of port calls and prioritizing stops at terminals owned by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. By utilizing larger vessels and streamlining operations, the alliance aims to enhance efficiency and minimize delays . Despite these efforts, recent data indicates a slight decline in reliability, with on-time performance dipping below the 90% target in late March, highlighting the ongoing challenges in maintaining high service levels amid global disruptions.
Implications for Oceania:
Australia's Economic Outlook
Australia's economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by global trade tensions and domestic policy adjustments. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.10% in April, following a 25 basis point cut in February, as it assesses the impact of recent monetary easing measures. Core inflation has moderated to 2.9% in Q1 2025, aligning with the RBA's target range of 2.0–3.0%, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing.
However, inflation expectations have risen, reaching 4.2% in April, up from 3.6% in March, indicating potential concerns about future price stability. The housing market shows signs of recovery, with the NAB Residential Property Index increasing to +40 in March, and expectations for further growth in the coming months.
In response to U.S. tariffs, the Australian government has implemented a five-point plan to mitigate the impact on affected industries, including a $50 million assistance package to help exporters find new markets. Despite these challenges, Australia's stock market has attracted global investors seeking alternatives to U.S. markets, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising by 3.1% since the announcement of U.S. tariffs in April.
New Zealand's Economic Developments
New Zealand's economy is experiencing a gradual recovery, with GDP growth of 0.7% in Q4 2024, surpassing expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has reduced the Official Cash Rate to 3.5% and signaled the possibility of further cuts to support economic activity. Inflation is projected to peak at 2.7% in the September quarter, remaining within the RBNZ's target range.
Labor market indicators show signs of softening, with employment growth remaining tepid and wage inflation moderating, reinforcing expectations for continued monetary easing . In trade developments, New Zealand and India have resumed negotiations for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, aiming to enhance supply chain integration and market access. Additionally, an upgraded ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) came into force on 21 April 2025, strengthening trade ties with Southeast Asia.
Trade and Industry Highlights
Australia's trade landscape is undergoing significant changes due to the imposition of U.S. tariffs. The government has responded with a strategic plan to support affected industries and diversify export markets. Despite these challenges, Australia's stock market has attracted global investors seeking alternatives to U.S. markets, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising by 3.1% since the announcement of U.S. tariffs in April.
In New Zealand, the resumption of Free Trade Agreement negotiations with India and the implementation of the upgraded AANZFTA are expected to open new opportunities for exporters and strengthen economic ties within the Asia-Pacific region. These developments underscore both countries' commitment to enhancing trade resilience and economic diversification in the face of global uncertainties.
The global ocean freight industry is grappling with significant overcapacity, leading to an increase in blanked sailings as carriers attempt to stabilize rates amid softening demand. Notably, the Asia-Europe trade lanes have experienced a substantial capacity increase since the Chinese New Year, surpassing typical seasonal growth and contributing to a sharp decline in spot freight rates.
In response to these challenges, major shipping companies have suspended several weekly routes between China and the U.S., particularly affecting the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast ports. This move follows the imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. administration, which has significantly disrupted trade flows. Carriers such as MSC, Zim, and members of the Ocean Alliance have been most affected, with some reducing ship sizes or canceling services altogether.
The surge in blanked sailings is evident, with the Transpacific route experiencing a notable increase in cancellations. Between weeks 20 and 24 of 2025, 58 sailings have been canceled across key East–West trade lanes, representing an 8% cancellation rate. The majority of these cancellations are concentrated on the Transpacific Eastbound trade, accounting for 62% of the total.
Implications for Oceania:
Recommendations:
Bangladesh's Chittagong Port has recently enhanced its operational capacity with the inauguration of the Patenga Container Terminal (PCT), offering new avenues for global carriers to serve the region. The terminal is currently accommodating the 2,750 TEU vessel Maersk Chattogram and, for the first time, is handling export, import, and empty containers simultaneously.
The Chittagong Port Authority completed PCT's construction in June 2022 and, in December 2023, entered into a 20-year operating concession with Saudi operator Red Sea Gateway Terminal (RSGT). Commercial operations at PCT commenced in June 2024.
Implications for Oceania:
Recent developments in U.S. trade policy have significantly impacted ocean freight dynamics between Asia and the United States. While exporters from Southeast Asia are resuming shipments due to a temporary 90-day suspension of new U.S. tariffs, Chinese exporters face substantial challenges. The imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports has led to a sharp decline in bookings, with reports indicating a 30% to 60% drop in container volumes from China to the U.S.
In response to decreased demand, major shipping lines have canceled numerous transpacific sailings. Approximately 28% of capacity to the U.S. West Coast and 42% to the East Coast have been withdrawn. Notably, carriers such as MSC, Zim, and members of the Ocean Alliance (including Cosco, Evergreen, CMA CGM, and OOCL) have suspended at least six weekly services between China and the U.S., affecting ports across the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast.
Conversely, Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia are experiencing increased demand. U.S. importers are diversifying their sourcing strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, leading to a modest rise in shipments from these regions. However, the capacity of Southeast Asia to fully compensate for the reduced Chinese volumes remains limited.
Implications for Oceania:
Recommendations:
The recent escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan, following the April 22 attack on tourists in Kashmir, has led to significant disruptions in regional trade and logistics. Both nations have imposed reciprocal bans on imports and port access, effectively halting bilateral trade and impacting supply chains across South Asia.
Trade and Shipping Disruptions
India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) issued a notification on May 2, 2025, prohibiting the import and transit of all goods originating from or exported via Pakistan. This move was followed by a directive from the Directorate General of Shipping, banning Pakistani-flagged vessels from docking at Indian ports. In response, Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce announced a similar ban on Indian goods and vessels, including those transiting through third countries. These measures have led to immediate disruptions in cargo movement, with ocean carriers rerouting services and suspending calls to affected ports.
Airspace Closures and Flight Rerouting
The conflict has also impacted air transportation, with both countries closing their airspace to each other's aircraft. This has forced international airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France, to reroute flights, leading to longer flight times and increased operational costs. Indian carriers, such as Air India, are facing significant financial strain due to the need for longer detours on routes to Europe and North America.
Implications for Oceania
While direct trade between Oceania and the Indian subcontinent may not be significantly affected, the broader disruptions in regional logistics can have cascading effects:
Market Volatility: The geopolitical instability may lead to fluctuations in commodity prices and market uncertainty, impacting trade decisions and economic planning.
Check our snapshot for a quick glance on space, rate, equipment and transit times for Oceania
Effective May 2, 2025, the United States has terminated the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments originating from China and Hong Kong. Previously, this exemption allowed goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. Under the new policy, such imports are now subject to a 30% duty or a flat fee of $25 per item, increasing to $50 after June 1, 2025. This change is part of a broader trade strategy by the U.S. administration to address concerns over China's role in the synthetic opioid crisis and to bolster domestic manufacturing.
Impact on E-Commerce and Global Supply Chains
The revocation of the de minimis exemption significantly affects e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu, which heavily relied on this provision to ship low-cost goods directly to U.S. consumers. With the new tariffs in place, these companies are re-evaluating their logistics strategies, including establishing U.S.-based warehouses and diversifying their supply chains. Consumers can expect increased prices and potential delays in shipping times. Additionally, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) now requires formal customs entries for all affected shipments, adding complexity to the import process.
Implications for Oceania Businesses
For businesses in Oceania, particularly those involved in exporting to the U.S. or importing from China, this policy shift presents both challenges and opportunities. Exporters may find a more level playing field in the U.S. market as Chinese competitors face increased costs. Importers, however, need to navigate the new tariff landscape carefully, especially if their supply chains involve Chinese-origin goods destined for the U.S. It's crucial for Oceania businesses to reassess their logistics and sourcing strategies to mitigate potential disruptions and capitalize on emerging market dynamics.
The transpacific air cargo sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with demand dropping sharply due to recent U.S. trade policy changes. The elimination of the de minimis exemption on May 2, 2025, which previously allowed duty-free entry for shipments under $800 from China and Hong Kong, has led to a substantial decline in e-commerce air traffic to the U.S. Freight forwarders and customs brokers estimate a 20% to 30% decrease in air cargo shipments from Asia to the U.S. compared to the previous year.
This sudden drop in demand has resulted in a global capacity shift. According to data from Rotate, global airfreight capacity fell by 8% in the past 72 hours, with approximately 10% of the global freighter fleet—nearly 50 widebody aircraft—not operating for three consecutive days. The decline in transpacific demand is prompting airlines to explore alternative routes and markets to redeploy their capacity effectively.
For Oceania, these developments present both challenges and opportunities. While the reduced transpacific demand may lead to increased availability of freighter capacity in the region, it also signals potential volatility in airfreight rates and service reliability. Oceania-based exporters and importers should closely monitor these shifts, as carriers may reallocate capacity to routes serving Australia and New Zealand, potentially affecting transit times and costs.
Australia’s biosecurity measures to stop the entry of Trogoderma granarium—commonly known as the khapra beetle—are about to change. From 28 May 2025, new pre-border treatment and phytosanitary certification requirements will apply to high-risk plant products and FCL/FCX sea containers originating from khapra beetle target-risk countries.
Key Changes:
These changes will affect phytosanitary certificates issued on or after 28 May 2025. A minimum 10-week transitional period will follow, during which the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry will assist importers with compliance.
For more detailed guidance, importers are encouraged to review the Khapra Beetle Treatment Factsheet and IIAN 111-2025
For any Importers/Exporters working with the US, MFAT has set up a dedicated hotline to assist businesses with questions around the US tariffs. You can contact the at:
Us.exports@mfat.govt.nz or ring 0800 824 605.
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) has announced that the current Methyl Bromide Fumigation Methodology (version 2.0) will remain in effect until 30 April 2025. A revised version (3.0) was implemented starting 1 May 2025. This update aims to clarify existing requirements, simplify language, and ensure treatment providers can effectively meet regulatory standards.
Key Points:
Action Items for Stakeholders:
For more detailed information and to access the current and upcoming methodologies, please visit the official DAFF page: Methyl Bromide Fumigation Methodology – Prepare now for 2025 update.
KLN will continue to support customers with updated visibility and alternative routing where necessary. Proactive planning and close communication will be key to maintaining supply chain continuity during this busy and compressed period.