September has brought a fresh wave of complexity to supply chains across Oceania. While global container spot rates continued their slow decline, it’s clear that the traditional peak season has already passed, leaving behind a quieter and flatter shipping environment. The impact of US tariff policies is becoming increasingly pronounced, particularly with the removal of the de minimis exemption and the imposition of high duties across multiple product categories. For e-commerce and B2C exporters in particular, the shift is forcing a reassessment of logistics channels, pricing strategies, and compliance processes.
The extended truce between the U.S. and China has provided some relief, offering rate stability and room for planning. However, carriers are now grappling with oversupply and depressed rates, particularly on the transpacific lanes—raising concerns that pressure may spill over into Oceania services as vessel capacity shifts. Some lines are focusing on volume over profitability, meaning schedule reliability and service adjustments will continue to challenge shippers through Q4.
Domestically, Australia and New Zealand face diverging economic outlooks. Inflation in Australia has spiked again, complicating the RBA’s rate strategy, while New Zealand has eased its monetary policy further amid signs of contraction. Meanwhile, market consolidation—such as DP World’s acquisition of Silk Logistics—signals growing integration but may limit competitive options for shippers in the long term.
On the regulatory front, BMSB season is underway, CAL cargo rules are tightening, and postal exports to the U.S. have been disrupted due to de minimis reform. Customers are advised to forecast and book early, consider modal shifts, and stay updated on offshore treatment requirements. Planning and flexibility will remain your strongest tools heading into the final quarter.
Forecasting isn’t just for peak season—start planning Q4 allocations now. Even without the usual surge, front-loaded demand and transpacific capacity shifts are reducing service predictability. Work closely with freight forwarders to secure space and adjust forecasts to reflect stable demand, rather than spikes, across October and November.
KLN Oceania can help you discuss strategies and support you in negotiations.
Global container spot rates have fallen for the tenth consecutive week, reinforcing concerns that the traditional peak season arrived early this year. According to the latest Drewry World Container Index (WCI), average spot rates dipped another 1.5% last week, now standing at roughly 25% below the mid-June highs, when front-loading activity surged due to the tariff window between China and the U.S.
Major trades, such as the transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes, have seen the sharpest declines. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 3% week-on-week, while Shanghai to Rotterdam fell by 2.6%. Analysts now expect muted rate activity throughout the remainder of Q3, as demand softens following the front-loading.
For Australian and New Zealand importers relying on transpacific or Asia-Europe connections, this downtrend suggests short-term opportunities for lower freight costs. However, capacity reallocation toward transpacific lanes may lead to tighter space availability on Oceania-bound services, especially if carriers continue to pursue higher-volume routes.
New US import tariffs affecting Australian-origin goods and other global shipments have taken effect in multiple phases throughout mid-2025, with the latest round implemented on 7 August 2025. A key further change is set for 29 August 2025, when the US will eliminate the de minimis threshold, applying tariffs to all imports, regardless of value.
These updates stem from ongoing US national security investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and other executive orders.
Impact on Oceania Trade & Logistics:
Recommendations for Exporters & Freight Planners:
Key Update
The United States has extended the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs with China, now set to run through 10 November 2025, forestalling any scheduled tariff increases. This extension provides much-needed headroom for global supply chains and commercial planning.
Why This Matters
Broader Implications for Supply Chains
Takeaway for Oceania Shippers
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Strategy |
Actionable Insight |
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Secure Capacity Early |
With demand expected to remain stable, early bookings help ensure flexibility and space across key trade lanes. |
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Monitor Rate Corridors |
While volatility is dampened, spot rate adjustments may still occur. Maintain visibility on market trends. |
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Keep Forecasts Updated |
Work with logistics partners—and KLN—to align your shipping windows with this extended truce. |
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Diversify Tactically |
While the truce reduces immediate risk, regional alternatives remain valuable hedges for long-term resilience. |
Despite a sharp drop in transpacific spot rates—some lanes seeing rates as low as $2,000/FEU—carriers are continuing to prioritise market share and vessel utilisation over profitability. The article reports that most lines are not reacting with blank sailings or capacity reductions, a stark contrast to the aggressive rate protection strategies seen in the past.
Ocean carriers appear to be more focused on locking in long-term volumes and customer commitments as part of their broader post-tariff and front-loading strategy, even if it means operating at a loss on certain services. The Loadstar notes that this volume-first approach could further drag rates downward in the coming weeks, especially as the peak season has already passed its apex and demand softens.
Some analysts predict that if carriers do not act soon to rein in excess capacity, additional rate erosion could destabilise not just the transpacific corridor, but ripple through to secondary lanes like Oceania and intra-Asia.
Relevance for KLN Oceania customers:
The global container ship orderbook has swelled to its highest level in 15 years, reaching around 7.7 million TEU of new capacity due for delivery through 2027. This surge in newbuilds follows a post-COVID ordering boom driven by soaring freight rates and pandemic-related bottlenecks.
Analysts warn this influx of vessels could trigger severe overcapacity from late 2025 onwards—particularly if global demand doesn’t rebound as strongly as expected. Carriers are already facing weak rates on major east–west trades, and the upcoming fleet expansion could exacerbate downward pressure on pricing, utilisation, and profitability.
Potential impact for Oceania logistics:
Australia’s Economic Outlook
In August 2025, Australia is expected to face a sudden spike in inflation as core pressures begin to re-emerge. Annual headline CPI rose sharply to 2.8% in July, up from 1.9% in June—marking the highest rate since July 2024. This rise was driven primarily by a 13% surge in electricity prices and a 5% increase in holiday-related travel and accommodation costs. Core inflation and the trimmed‑mean measure also increased, signaling broader-based inflation pressures.
Despite this jump, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains open to further rate cuts over the next year. In its August policy meeting, the RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%, noting that inflation is nearing the midpoint of its target range, and highlighted that the pace of future cuts will depend on incoming data, such as labour market trends and global conditions. Markets now anticipate another rate reduction in November, with some expectations as high as 3.35% by year‑end.
That said, economists remain wary. The spike in inflation—termed a “shocker”—was primarily attributed to temporary factors, such as delayed electricity rebates and seasonal price increases for travel. Several experts emphasize that energy costs are likely to reverse in the coming months, potentially reopening the window for rate relief.
Most recently, the RBA issued revised forecasts in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, downgrading long-term productivity growth from 1% to 0.7% and lowering the economy’s potential growth rate to 2.0%. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 were revised down to 1.7%. The bank expects headline inflation to peak at 3.1% in mid-2026 before easing to 2.5% by the end of 2027, while unemployment is predicted to remain steady at 4.3%. Markets still lean toward gradual easing—potentially down to 2.85% over the coming year.
New Zealand’s Economic Developments
New Zealand’s central bank took a more aggressive stance this month, cutting its Official Cash Rate to a three-year low of 3.0%, citing domestic economic weakness, stalled Q2 growth, and elevated global trade uncertainty. The RBNZ flagged further easing to come, with some policymakers reportedly favouring a 50 basis-point cut.
Meanwhile, official data show that inflation remains within the target range, rising to 2.7% for the year ended June 2025, driven by a 12.2% increase in local authority rates, as well as increases in housing rentals (~3.2%) and groceries (~4.8%).
However, timely indicators from the BNZ nowcast suggest the economy contracted in Q2, with declines in manufacturing and services activity. The labour market weakened further, with unemployment at 5.2%, and the participation rate hitting a four-year low, indicating some people are exiting the workforce altogether.
Encouragingly, the RBNZ expects inflation to fall further next year if global tariffs and trade risks ease, and it retains the option to lower its policy rate even more if conditions permit.
In fiscal news, the government unveiled a NZ$2 billion investment fund with BlackRock aimed at fast-tracking renewable energy infrastructure—specifically in solar, wind, green hydrogen, battery storage, and EV charging.
Trade & Industry Highlights
On trade, New Zealand’s export sector remains under pressure. In early August, U.S. tariffs on New Zealand goods were raised to 15%, affecting sectors such as meat and dairy. Trade Minister Todd McClay confirmed NZ would not retaliate but would seek dialogue to address the tariff escalation.
Australia, while fending off immediate trade fallout, must now confront rising costs at home—particularly energy—that are complicating the RBA’s efforts to balance inflation control with economic support.
We are into the peak, and the vessel space is tight—book in advance.
The market has shifted from reactive peaks to a more drawn-out, level-demand environment. While spot rates are still sliding, there’s a glimmer of steadiness emerging. For Oceania stakeholders, early planning, flexible scheduling, and vigilant monitoring remain vital to navigating this largely flattened seasonal period.
Peak Season Passes Quietly
The traditional late-year surge in demand for liner shipping appears to have passed quietly—most likely front-loaded into earlier months—leaving little momentum for a conventional peak season. With the worst of tariff-driven disruptions behind us, market-tracking indices suggest the steep volatility of Q2 may be cooling off, at least temporarily.
Long Slide in Spot Rates Continues—But Slows
Container spot rates are entering their tenth consecutive week of declines, although signs of stabilisation are now emerging. This moderation follows prolonged overcapacity and subdued demand across lanes.
Market sources also note that declines are less pronounced on U.S. trade lanes, where rates have essentially returned to normal levels, though European routes continue to suffer sharper drops.
What This Means for Oceania Shippers
Check our snapshot for a quick glance at space, rate, equipment, and transit times for Oceania.
Air freight rates remain relatively stable across most major lanes, but demand growth is losing momentum, particularly on key Asia–Europe and Transpacific routes. According to the latest TAC Index and Xeneta data, rate pressure is expected to rise if this trend continues into September.
Market sentiment is shifting from optimism in Q2 to cautious realism in Q3. While belly capacity remains constrained on some routes, overall yields are expected to dip unless demand recovers in early September.
Key Takeaways:
Strategic Outlook for Oceania:
Airlines are shifting more of their cargo strategy into belly-hold capacity within passenger aircraft for the upcoming winter season. This move reflects increased global travel demand and a strategic pivot by carriers seeking to optimise underutilised space and reduce reliance on dedicated freighters.
Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian airlines are leading the charge by introducing or expanding routes into secondary cities in Europe, North America, and Africa, with notable examples including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Singapore Airlines. Belly capacity now accounts for a larger share of global air cargo volume than at any point in the past five years.
Potential Implications for Oceania:
Forwarders and exporters in Oceania should engage early with airline partners to secure space on popular routes, especially during peak demand months. Sectors relying on just-in-time delivery or temperature-sensitive cargo may still prefer freighter services for reliability. Still, the added belly capacity gives flexibility—particularly for fashion, e-commerce, and perishables.
Please be reminded that the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) Risk Season commences on 1 September 2025 and will apply to goods shipped between 1 September 2025 and 30 April 2026 (inclusive). Measures also apply to vessels that berth, load, or tranship from target risk countries during this period.
We have compiled a list of resources for your convenience:
Key Changes for 2025–26 Season
Safeguarding Arrangements
The Safeguarding Arrangements Scheme is again available this season, offering an alternative clearance pathway for sea cargo imports of six or more hard-sided containers of target high-risk goods.
AusTreat & Ethyl Formate
Further Information
We strongly encourage all customers and supply chain partners to familiarise themselves with these requirements to avoid delays or compliance issues during the 2025–26 BMSB season.
Australia Post has announced the temporary suspension of parcel services to the United States and Puerto Rico, effective immediately, following the US Government’s decision to end the long-standing de minimis exemption for low-value goods valued under USD $800. This regulatory change, effective August 29, 2025, means that all shipments—regardless of value—must now have tariffs assessed and prepaid prior to entry. The suspension affects Australian exporters and e-commerce providers relying on postal channels, while documents and gifts valued at USD $100 or less remain unaffected.
FAQ
What changed (the short version)
Who is affected
What’s not affected (as of today)
Potential impact (what we expect)
Real-world impact (what’s happening now)
What this means for you (actions to take now)
KLN Oceania guidance & alternatives
DP World Australia has officially completed its acquisition of Silk Logistics Holdings, finalising the deal on 18 August 2025 through a court-approved scheme of arrangement. Silk is now a wholly owned private subsidiary of DP World Australia. The merger was approved by Silk shareholders earlier this month and by the Supreme Court of New South Wales on 6 August.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) initially raised concerns about market concentration but ultimately did not oppose the merger. The IFCBAA (International Forwarders & Customs Brokers Association of Australia) also did not oppose the acquisition, though it recommended a formal undertaking be considered to ensure market fairness.
This consolidation strengthens DP World’s presence in end-to-end logistics in Australia, combining its container terminal operations with Silk’s national warehousing, transport, and distribution network. Customers may benefit from streamlined services and vertically integrated solutions, though concerns persist about reduced competition, particularly in contract logistics and port landside access.
We’ve observed additional, carrier-specific charges being applied to shipments originating from countries identified as having high levels of contamination or a heightened risk of pests. These charges typically aren’t listed in standard shipping line rate schedules.
Please be advised that if your cargo originates from or transits through a Country Action List (CAL) location, it is subject to:
Note on CAL Countries: The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) defines CAL cargo as containers or breakbulk shipments from countries or ports known for their high levels of contamination or pest risk. CAL cargo is subject to heightened biosecurity measures, including mandatory on-wharf inspections for soil, plant material, pests, or other contaminants.
Additional Option — Sea Container Hygiene System (SCHS): Importers using CAL routes are encouraged to consider the SCHS. In this voluntary scheme, participating shipping lines or facilities commit to rigorous offshore cleaning protocols. This can significantly reduce on-arrival inspections—down to as little as 5%—potentially saving time and costs.
More information is available on this link.