August delivered three simultaneous disruptions with direct consequences for Oceania supply chains entering September. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed for a sixth consecutive month, though late-August diplomatic activity between Iran and Oman produced the most credible corridor proposal yet. Three typhoons struck China's east coast in five weeks, creating the worst sustained port congestion of the year — the effects of which are now arriving at Australian and New Zealand destination ports. And the RBNZ followed its July hike with a second consecutive 25 basis point increase, while the RBA held unanimously for a second meeting in a row. None of these threads are resolved. Several are compounding.
Six months since the Strait of Hormuz closed to routine commercial shipping, the most significant development of the month came in its final days. On 25 August, Iran and Oman outlined a phased framework for a joint temporary shipping corridor, including a mine-clearing component — the most commercially credible proposal discussed to date. The same day, President Trump stated that all mines in the strait had been removed or detonated and reiterated the US position that no tolls or Iranian transit control would be accepted. The core obstacle remains unchanged: Iran insists on transit through Iranian territorial waters under Iranian supervision; the US and international shipping bodies require toll-free passage through the internationally recognised sea lane. PortWatch recorded just 6 transits on 30 August against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 85 per day, with 408 vessels holding position at anchorage. Crude exports from the Gulf have fallen by roughly half compared to pre-war levels. Cape of Good Hope routing remains the operational standard for all major carriers, oil held around USD 87 per barrel through mid-August, and global ocean freight rates remain approximately 45% above pre-conflict levels with air freight approximately 30% higher, per OECD data published in August — elevated baselines now structurally embedded in the second half of 2026.
The defining freight disruption of August was not in the Middle East but off China's east coast. Typhoons Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin struck in rapid succession across July and August, with Dolphin forcing three-day closures at both Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan — the world's largest and third-largest container ports by volume. More than 2.4 million TEUs were stranded in the immediate aftermath, vessel waiting times reached 12 days at affected ports, and global port congestion has risen to its highest level in four years, with over 10% of the world fleet at anchor. The consequences are now arriving at Oceania destination ports: Brisbane is the most acutely affected East Coast Australian port, with terminal delays from vessel bunching expected to persist through October. The ANL/COSCO/OOCL service into New Zealand is running an alternating Shanghai-Ningbo omission pattern with no confirmed end date. Carriers have responded with two September GRIs on China/Asia-Australia lanes — approximately USD 500 per TEU from 1 September and a further USD 500 per TEU from 15 September — compounding peak season surcharges already running since Q3. Reefer equipment remains in critical short supply across the trade.
Domestically, Australia and New Zealand continue on sharply different policy paths. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for the second consecutive meeting on 11 August by unanimous vote — a more unified outcome than the divided decisions of earlier in the year — while July CPI eased to 3.5% annually, its softest reading since November 2025. The trimmed mean held firm at 3.6% for a second consecutive month, however, keeping the RBA's hawkish bias intact. Major banks are split on whether the next move comes in September, November, or not at all. In New Zealand, the RBNZ's 2 September decision to lift the OCR to 2.75% was passed unanimously — a notably more confident move than the casting-vote hold of May — with the Bank's revised projection pointing to 3.0% by December. New Zealand's July trade data underscored the pressure: a goods deficit of NZD 1.95 billion — the largest since mid-2022 — driven by surging fuel import costs, even as goods exports rose 14% year-on-year. For importers and exporters across both markets, September opens with the 2026/27 BMSB season now in effect under materially changed rules from 1 September, elevated and still-rising freight costs, congestion-driven schedule unpredictability across North Asia origins, and cost assumptions built at any point in H1 2026 requiring active revision.
Published proforma transit times are not the operating reality right now — use current estimates and build your own buffer before making delivery commitments.
Three typhoons and ongoing Middle East disruption have pushed global port congestion to a four-year high, with vessel bunching from Chinese port delays now feeding directly into arrival variability at Australian and New Zealand ports. Brisbane in particular is experiencing compound delays from off-schedule vessel arrivals expected to last through October. For any cargo booked on services touching Shanghai, Ningbo, or other East China origins, do not plan against published schedules — confirm current actual transit estimates with your KLN Oceania team, add a minimum two-week contingency buffer to customer-facing delivery windows, and plan buffer stock for high-velocity SKUs where a single rolled booking creates a gap.
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August 2026 produced three distinct storylines running simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for a sixth consecutive month, with late-August diplomatic activity between Iran and Oman generating the most credible corridor proposal yet but stopping short of implementation. The RBA delivered its second consecutive hold as it assessed the cumulative effect of three earlier hikes. The RBNZ followed through with a further 25 basis point increase on 2 September — the second consecutive hike. And China's east coast was struck by three typhoons in five weeks, creating the worst sustained port congestion of the year at Shanghai and Ningbo, with direct knock-on effects now arriving at Oceania's destination ports.
As of 30 August 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial shipping for six months. PortWatch recorded just 6 commercial transits on 30 August against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 85 per day, with 408 vessels holding position away from berth as of that date. From 15 July to 23 August, an average of approximately five vessels per day transited the strait — a 95% reduction from pre-war volumes. Crude exports from the Gulf region have fallen by nearly half compared to pre-war levels, from approximately 17 million barrels per day in 2025 to roughly 9 million barrels per day as of August 2026, according to UNCTAD data. Direct crude oil exports via the strait have fallen to an average of just 2.2 million barrels per day, per Kpler analysis.
The most significant diplomatic development of August came in the final days of the month. On 25 August, Iran and Oman outlined a proposal for a 'phased framework' for a joint temporary shipping corridor through the strait, with a mine-clearing component included in the discussion. On 25 August, Trump stated that all mines in the strait have been removed or detonated and reiterated the US position that no tolls or Iranian transit control would be accepted.
Iran's position was that the strait remains closed and that any Iranian engagement on the corridor would not proceed until the US fulfills commitments under the Islamabad MoU from June. The tension between these positions is the core obstacle: Iran wants vessels to transit through Iranian territorial waters under Iranian supervision; the US and international shipping bodies insist on toll-free transit through the internationally recognised sea lane. The IEA warned in mid-August that the reopening is becoming increasingly urgent, as the world's oil stockpiles are being drawn down at pace.
What this means entering September
Tariff Watch: Section 232 Review Closes, Section 301 Holds
The 12.5% Section 301 forced-labour tariff that took effect on Australian and New Zealand goods on 24 July 2026 remains in place through September, with no expiry date attached. The US Trade Representative's final action, published in the Federal Register on 28 July 2026, confirmed the tariff applies across roughly 60 economies including Australia and New Zealand.
The US Department of Commerce's separate proposal to extend Section 232 tariffs to 14 additional derivative products of steel, aluminium and copper had its public comment period close on 27 August 2026. New Zealand's average annual imports into the US of these specific products totalled under NZ$200,000 over the three years to June 2026, a small direct exposure, but no outcome of the review had been published as this issue went to print.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Treat the Section 232 review as unresolved, not closed. Exporters shipping steel, aluminium or copper-based products to the US, even in small volumes, should keep HS classifications under review; a product not on the list today can be added once Commerce finalises its findings, potentially with limited notice.
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for the second consecutive meeting at its 11 August 2026 sitting, with the decision passed unanimously — a notably more unified outcome than the divided votes of earlier in the year. The Board acknowledged that financial conditions have tightened meaningfully following three consecutive hikes in the first half of 2026 and that the economy is slowing broadly in line with expectations. At the same time, it maintained a clear hawkish bias: inflation remains too high, trimmed mean is little changed from the March quarter, and the Board stated explicitly that it stands ready to hike again if upside risks to inflation materialise.
The August Statement on Monetary Policy marked a modest shift in tone. The RBA revised down its peak inflation expectations, with both headline and underlying inflation now forecast to return to the midpoint of the 2–3% target band by early 2028 — a slightly more optimistic timeline than May's projections. A decline in global oil prices since the May Statement and some softer-than-expected domestic data contributed to the recalibration. Risks to the inflation outlook, however, remain skewed heavily to the upside, and the Board has not signalled any path to rate cuts in the foreseeable future.
Inflation data for July, released by the ABS on 26 August, provided a mixed picture. Annual CPI eased to 3.5% — down from 3.8% in June and the softest result since November 2025 — driven by moderation in housing, food, and services. However, the result came in above the 3.3% consensus, and the trimmed mean held steady at 3.6% for the second consecutive month, the highest since September 2024. Transport inflation jumped to 1.6% annually in July from just 0.1% in June, with automotive fuel rising 7.5% on the month as a partial unwinding of the federal government's fuel excise relief measures took effect in July. Housing remains the single largest contributor to inflation, with new dwelling prices rising 5.7% annually as builders continue passing on elevated material and labour costs. The Wage Price Index for the June quarter rose 3.2% over the year — a slight easing from 3.3% in March, but still above where the RBA would like it.
The major bank outlook remains divided. NAB is forecasting a further hike at the 29 September meeting to 4.60%; ANZ and CBA have pushed their hike expectations to November; Westpac expects the RBA to hold for the remainder of 2026. The September meeting will be heavily shaped by the August CPI print, due for release in late September, and by how wage and spending data evolves through Q3.
New Zealand's tightening cycle has accelerated meaningfully. The RBNZ raised the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 8 July meeting — the first hike since May 2023 — in a narrow 3-3 committee split, with Governor Anna Breman casting the deciding vote. Just over seven weeks later, the RBNZ hiked again at its 2 September Monetary Policy Statement, lifting the OCR to 2.75% by consensus — a unanimously agreed move that signals growing committee confidence in the case for removing residual stimulus.
The September MPS laid out a clearly staged path. The RBNZ's revised OCR projection implies an average rate of 2.81% in the December 2026 quarter, consistent with a pause at the 28 October meeting and one further 25 basis point hike in December to 3.0%. Westpac's review of the statement describes it as "appropriately balanced" — resolved on the direction of travel but cautious about committing to every remaining meeting. The RBNZ revised up its short-term growth forecasts while materially moderating its medium-term outlook, reflecting a weaker read on consumption trends. A majority of MPC members see upside risks to inflation from persistent domestic pressures; all members see downside risks to growth.
The inflation picture is improving. Annual CPI for the June 2026 quarter came in at 4.1%, having likely peaked at 3.9% — below the RBNZ's May MPS forecast of 4.3% — and is now expected to ease to around 3.3% in the September quarter as earlier fuel price shocks work out of the annual comparison base. Business confidence improved in June, and the RBNZ's GDP nowcasting model projects 0.6% growth in the September quarter, consistent with the recovery the Bank has been waiting for before committing to a more aggressive tightening path.
July trade data, released by Statistics New Zealand on 19 August, was a sharp reversal from April's record surplus. New Zealand posted a goods trade deficit of NZD 1.95 billion in July — the largest monthly deficit since mid-2022 — as imports surged to NZD 9.34 billion. Fuel costs were the dominant factor: Stats NZ noted fuel led the rise in annual imports, with total goods imports in the year to July 2026 reaching NZD 89.8 billion, up 11% on the prior year. Goods exports rose 14% year-on-year to NZD 7.4 billion, a solid result, but insufficient to offset the import spike. The annual trade deficit widened to NZD 5.24 billion from NZD 3.75 billion in the prior period. While a single month's result should not be over-read, the structural pressure of elevated fuel import costs is visible in the data and will bear watching through Q4.
The policy backdrop across both economies has shifted materially through the August–September period. Australia is in a watchful pause — three hikes banked, the economy slowing as intended, inflation edging lower but still well above target, and the next move uncertain as the Board assesses incoming data. New Zealand, by contrast, is actively tightening for the first time in three years, with two consecutive hikes now delivered and a third pencilled in for December.
The Middle East conflict, which has dominated the economic narrative since February, is beginning to fade as the primary price driver. Oil prices have moderated from their conflict-era peaks, and both central banks have noted this in their most recent statements. The RBA's August SMP explicitly cited declining global oil prices as a factor in its improved inflation forecasts; the RBNZ's July statement noted that lower oil futures had contributed to a lower near-term inflation forecast relative to May. However, second-round effects — feeding through construction costs, food prices, transport surcharges, and wage expectations — are proving more persistent, which is why underlying inflation remains sticky in both markets even as headline rates ease.
For Oceania importers and exporters, the key implications as of early September 2026 are: in Australia, financing costs are stable for now but the next rate move remains live, and any planning assumption of a near-term cut should be treated with caution given the RBA's explicit messaging; in New Zealand, the tightening cycle is active and the OCR is heading toward 3.0% by year end, meaning borrowing and contract costs are still moving upward; and fuel import costs remain the largest single pressure on New Zealand's trade balance, with the structural impact of the energy shock visible in widening annual deficit figures. For supply chain planning across both markets, Q4 2026 is unlikely to offer the settled cost environment that businesses would prefer.
The defining feature of the August ocean freight market for Oceania importers was not rate levels — it was the sustained damage to schedule reliability from an unprecedented sequence of typhoon closures at China's two largest container ports. Typhoon Bavi, Typhoon Noul, and Typhoon Dolphin struck China's east coast in rapid succession across July and August, with Dolphin on 8-10 August representing the strongest storm of the season to date.
Typhoon Dolphin forced three-day closures across the major container terminals at both Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan — the world's largest and third-largest container ports by volume respectively. More than 2.4 million TEUs of container capacity were stranded across North Asia in the storm's immediate aftermath, according to Linerlytica data. Vessel waiting times at Shanghai and Ningbo reached as high as 12 days in the week of 18 August, according to Worldwide Logistics Group monitoring data. Drewry confirmed that average vessel berth waiting times across the affected ports stood at 3.6 days as of early August — a figure the firm noted reflects global ship waiting times having nearly doubled between 2019 and 2026. By late August, congestion had not fully resolved when Typhoon Saudel approached the same coastline.
The practical consequence for Oceania-bound cargo is straightforward: vessels that were delayed, re-anchored, or rolled at Chinese ports through August are arriving at Australian and New Zealand destination ports on compressed or irregular schedules. This vessel bunching is now feeding directly into destination port congestion — most acutely at Brisbane, where the KLN Oceania September Outlook confirmed terminal delays are expected to last until the end of October. The KLN transit time estimates published on 24 August reflect the severity of these conditions: Shanghai to Brisbane is currently 31 days estimated transit, with a worst case of 41 days, before accounting for typhoon season additions of a further 3 to 5 days.
What to do now
Carriers have announced two General Rate Increases on China/Asia–Australia lanes this month: approximately USD 500 per TEU effective 1 September, and a further USD 500 per TEU effective 15 September, around USD 2,000 per 40' container in increases across September alone, stacked on top of PSS and surcharges already running since Q3.
The timing compounds an already-tight origin picture. Typhoon activity has severely affected Shanghai and Ningbo, pushing terminal berthing delays out to as much as 8 days and creating significant vessel bunching. Port call omissions have followed: ANL's A3N service is dropping Shanghai for six weeks, and the ACX service is dropping Qingdao for five weeks. Carriers are currently carrying roll pool backlogs of more than 2,000 TEU each. At the Australian end, Brisbane is currently the worst-performing East Coast port on vessel bunching from off-schedule arrivals, while Melbourne and Sydney are under pressure from strong volumes and unpredictable schedules.
New Zealand faces a related but distinct disruption: the ANL/COSCO/OOCL service is running an ongoing Shanghai–Ningbo omission pattern, alternating which port it skips week to week, with no indication it will clear quickly.
What this means for Oceania businesses
If cargo is not confirmed on a named vessel, it is competing against a substantial queue rather than a routine booking. Always confirm pricing at the point of booking, not when cargo is ready to ship. NZ shippers on the ANL/COSCO/OOCL loop should check with KLN which port their specific sailing will call before locking in a cargo-ready date.
Global ocean rates broadly softened through August, but Australia didn't follow the pattern uniformly. Freight into Australia from South East Asia accelerated sharply through the month, while North East Asia-origin lanes stayed under pressure, a genuine divergence rather than a uniform regional trend. August data shows China-Australia volumes elevated but flat month-on-month (+2%), while South East Asia-Australia rose 30% and India/Sri Lanka-Australia rose 40% month-on-month.
Carriers used the mixed picture to push rate actions regardless: ANL and CMA CGM lifted inland fuel surcharges (rail +8.3%, road +4.4%, barge +4.5%), and Maersk, ZIM and Gold Star Line all announced rate restorations, new fuel surcharges, or emergency space surcharges during August.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Don't assume a single "Asia-Oceania rate trend" when budgeting, origin matters more than usual this month. Importers sourcing from South East Asia or the Indian subcontinent should expect steeper increases than those sourcing from China, and both should now factor September's GRIs on top.
Port congestion has not eased since July and is now compounded by the typhoon activity noted above. Global port congestion is at a four-year high, with more than 10% of the world fleet waiting at anchorage. Shanghai is running vessel waiting times of around 77 hours; key hubs including Singapore and Port Klang continue to slow flows, and Yantian now requires pre-appointment booking for laden container gate-in. Melbourne's DP World West Swanson terminal is managing truck turnaround times of 2–3 hours, and New Zealand's main ports are reporting moderate 2–3 day delays.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Build schedule buffer into North Asia-origin bookings specifically, typhoon-driven delays are weather risk, not a carrier or terminal failure, and they are compounding on top of the chokepoint disruption and GRI activity already covered above.
Australia's blank sailing rate has come down to 6.0%, from 9.43% previously, and carriers are planning around 52 blank sailings globally over the next five weeks, roughly 7% of scheduled capacity. That's a genuine easing from the peak-season pressure flagged in the August issue, but it hasn't reached specialised equipment: reefer containers remain in critical short supply.
What this means for Oceania businesses
General dry-container capacity is loosening slightly, useful if you have flexibility on sailing dates. Reefer shippers should not read this as a broader easing signal; book reefer space as early as possible regardless.
Maersk's Qilin service (Shanghai-Sydney, launched 24 July) and COSCO's A3X service (Qingdao-Melbourne-Sydney, launched 27 July) are now operating their first full rotations. Neither has yet translated into broad rate relief, new capacity takes time to filter through to available, bookable space, and September's GRI activity (above) confirms that hasn't changed yet.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Ask your KLN account manager whether Qilin or A3X space is bookable on your specific corridor, transit-time gains are real (Qilin is around 4 days faster Shanghai-Sydney) even where headline rates haven't moved yet.
New Zealand shippers should expect airfreight capacity to tighten further this month as more cargo converts from ocean to air — a direct consequence of the ocean-side congestion and omissions covered above. Jet fuel surcharges are also expected to rise in September. Separately, Hong Kong Air Cargo is planning round-trip charter flights between Hong Kong and Brisbane this month, a potential incremental capacity option on that specific corridor.
What this means for Oceania businesses
If any part of your supply chain is time-critical, plan for air conversion now rather than as a last-minute fallback — capacity is tightening precisely because other shippers are making the same switch. Ask your KLN account manager about the Hong Kong–Brisbane charter option if that lane is relevant to your network, and confirm directly whether Shanghai or Hanoi-origin air capacity constraints reach your specific Oceania-bound bookings.
Middle East and South Asia air freight capacity remains under pressure, consistent with the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb disruption covered above. Rates on exposed lanes are still trading at roughly double pre-war levels, even as global air rates eased around 3% week-on-week during August, global rates overall remain approximately 24% higher than the same period in 2025.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Gulf-transiting air freight is not a short-term spike to wait out. Budget for elevated rates on these lanes through at least Q4, and discuss alternative routings with your KLN account manager where time-sensitivity allows.
Qantas Freight's import operations through Sydney remain affected by delays stemming from its system transition, first flagged in KLN's July customer advisory. Extended dwell times and limited visibility on cargo status after landing persist into September. Industry bodies FTA and APSA have escalated the issue directly with Qantas Freight. Continue building buffer into time-sensitive import planning through Qantas Freight's Sydney operations until the carrier confirms full recovery.
Australia's Brown Marmorated Stink Bug seasonal measures for 2026/27 took effect from 1 September 2026, applying to target high-risk goods manufactured in or shipped from listed risk countries with a shipped-on-board date on or after that date. The season itself is an annual requirement and well established in import planning calendars. What demands attention this year is that DAFF has introduced operational changes that differ materially from 2025/26 arrangements.
Three changes are commercially significant. First, Ethyl Formate has been added as an approved onshore treatment option for Australia — previously it was only available as an offshore treatment method. This provides an additional compliance pathway, but does not change the offshore treatment obligation for target goods from risk countries shipping before cargo-ready dates allow onshore treatment. Second, the Rolled Goods Policy has been removed. Breakbulk cargo must now be loaded within 120 hours of treatment, with the previous additional 48-hour allowance no longer available. For breakbulk programme managers and suppliers who relied on the prior window, this requires explicit production and loading schedule adjustments. Third, and most importantly for practical operations: approvals issued during the 2025/26 season are no longer valid. Every importer and treatment provider must operate under the 2026/27 rules from the first shipment of the new season.
The risk of non-compliance is not administrative — cargo that arrives without compliant treatment documentation can be directed for re-export or destruction at the importer's cost. China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom are classified as emerging risk countries under 2026/27 settings, resulting in increased random inspections of certain cargo from those origins. Target high-risk goods include machinery, vehicles, vehicle parts, metal goods, and several industrial and agricultural categories.
What to do now: If you import target high-risk goods from any BMSB risk country, confirm with your supplier and treatment provider that 2026/27 compliant documentation is in place before the next shipment leaves origin. Pay particular attention to the 120-hour loading window for breakbulk and verify that previous-season approvals have not been carried over in error. Contact your KLN Oceania customs brokerage team for confirmation of current DAFF guidance, treatment provider details, and how the new onshore Ethyl Formate pathway may be applicable to your programme.
As covered in Market Trend above, the US Commerce Department's proposal to extend Section 232 tariffs to 14 steel, aluminium and copper derivative products had its public comment period close on 27 August 2026, with no outcome published at the time of writing. Exporters in scope should treat this as unresolved and keep classification reviews current rather than assuming the proposal has lapsed.
Following the fuel excise reduction's expiry on 30 June, domestic road freight costs in Australia have now settled at the higher post-excise baseline through July. Businesses that had not yet updated cost-per-kilometre models should treat August invoices as the new reference point going into September, rather than a temporary spike.
The Port of Auckland VBS fee increase (effective 1 July, with further increases scheduled for January 2027) and the DAFF biosecurity charge indexation of 3.8% (effective 1 August, with a broader charges review planned for 1 November 2026) both remain in effect as reported in the August issue. No confirmed update to either was located this cycle, please verify with Ness before publishing rather than assuming no movement.
Contact our KLN Oceania team for freight planning support, cargo insurance review, or customs brokerage advice specific to your programmes.