Contents
Executive Summary
Global freight markets enter March under renewed pressure. Spot rates out of the Far East continue to soften across major fronthaul trades, reinforcing expectations that structural overcapacity will define 2026. While headline pricing appears weaker, carriers are responding with more aggressive blank sailings and capacity redistribution, increasing the risk of operational disruption rather than delivering straightforward cost relief.
Tariff volatility has re-emerged as a central risk factor. The US Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariff authority, followed by the introduction of a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122, has created a fresh layer of legal and commercial uncertainty. Combined with tighter de minimis enforcement, compliance complexity is increasing across US-linked flows — directly affecting exporters and indirectly influencing global capacity allocation that feeds into Oceania lanes.
Chinese New Year recovery effects are still playing out. February remains a transitional month across Asian origins, with backlog clearing, blank sailings and documentation delays shaping reliability more than rate swings. For Australia and New Zealand supply chains, the bigger risk into March is rollover and schedule variability, not sudden freight inflation.
Closer to home, macro conditions are diverging. Australia has shifted back into a tightening cycle, with inflation above target and further rate hikes priced into 2026. New Zealand, by contrast, maintains an accommodative stance, supported by improving trade performance and stronger regional agreements such as AANZFTA. The operating environment remains manageable — but it demands sharper planning, stronger compliance hygiene and disciplined contract management.
Business Tip
Manage “landed cost risk”, not just freight cost. In the current market, a low ocean rate can be quickly erased by rollovers, storage, late collections, or compliance delays. For critical SKUs, plan around reliability first — build buffer into ETAs, confirm routing flexibility, and avoid relying on “last feasible cut-off” bookings simply because the rate looks attractive.
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Market Trend
February updates point to falling average spot rates out of the Far East across major fronthaul trades, alongside the expectation that overcapacity will define 2026, unless the pace of Red Sea/Suez normalization changes carrier routing plans materially. There is a likely scenario: carriers responding to weak pricing by blanking sailings more aggressively, which can translate into real operational disruption for shippers.
Even when Asia-Oceania rates are sliding, AU/NZ supply chains can still feel tighter conditions if:
- equipment cycles are disrupted by route changes,
- carriers pull capacity to support rates in other trades, or
- transhipment hubs experience dwell-time variability.
Tariffs and Global Tariff Volatility
Trade policy risk has escalated again in early 2026, with implications that spill into Oceania supply chains via pricing, capacity allocation, and compliance workload—particularly on lanes touching the US (directly or via transhipment).
What changed (and why it matters)
- US Supreme Court ruling on emergency-tariff authority: The Court ruled that the President did not have authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs, reinforcing that broad tariff powers sit with Congress unless clearly delegated. This has created a period of legal and commercial uncertainty around past collections and potential refunds.
- A new “temporary import surcharge” has been introduced under Section 122: Following the ruling, the US issued a proclamation imposing a temporary import surcharge citing “international payments” issues under Section 122. This tool is designed to be uniform and time-limited unless extended by Congress, and includes defined exemptions/carve-outs via tariff-line mechanisms.
- De minimis tightening is increasing compliance friction: The US has also moved to continue suspending duty-free de minimis treatment (low-value shipment treatment) with the stated intent that adequate duty collection systems are in place—this increases entry-level processing requirements and data quality expectations across high-volume parcel/e-commerce flows.
Oceania impact (Australia & New Zealand)
- US-bound exporters (ANZ → US): If you sell into the US, expect greater landed-cost volatility and a higher chance of contract re-openers as buyers reassess duties/surcharges and exemption applicability. Confirm who carries the duty/surcharge risk under your Incoterms and sales agreements.
- Importers into ANZ (indirect exposure): Even if you don’t ship to the US, policy shocks can redirect carrier capacity and equipment positioning (especially on transpac lanes), which can affect space, schedules, and surcharges across interconnected networks that feed Oceania.
- Customs/broker workload + data requirements: De minimis changes push the market toward more detailed entry processing and stricter data capture (HS codes, product descriptions, shipper/consignee identifiers). That can translate into delays where documentation quality is poor—particularly for fast-moving, multi-SKU consignments.
What we recommend
- Contract & pricing hygiene: Add a “tariff/surcharge change” clause to customer quotes and contracts (review frequency, pass-through triggers, and documentation responsibilities).
- Compliance readiness: Ensure commercial invoices and product masters are robust (HS code discipline, accurate descriptions, consistent party data). De minimis tightening makes “fix it later” much harder.
- Planning stance for March/April: Assume higher volatility in US-related moves; build buffer into ETAs and keep options open for mode/route shifts if capacity or customs friction spikes.
US Temporary 10% import surcharge
- The US introduced a temporary 10% ad valorem surcharge under Section 122, with a defined time limit (150 days) unless extended.
- Not all goods are affected: there are wide carve-outs (including certain sensitive/strategic categories), and specific treatment for goods already in transit within a tight clearance window.
- The key message: the headline rate is 10%, but the real impact varies significantly by product and eligibility.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- US-bound cargo may face landed cost volatility depending on commodity classification and exemptions.
- Contract terms (DDP/DDU), quoting, and margin management can be impacted quickly if the policy shifts again.
What to do now
- Reconfirm tariff/surcharge exposure in contracts and Incoterms.
- Validate classification and exemption eligibility before quoting US landed costs.
- If shipping to the US, align with your forwarder/broker early on documentation and entry timing.
Chinese New Year 2026: What it’s still impacting (and what it means for AU/NZ)
- February is still a recovery month across many Asian origins. Factory shutdowns, reduced staffing, and slower documentation processing typically extend disruption beyond the holiday week itself.
- Backlog-clearing creates “tight weeks” even when demand is soft. Space can be constrained on preferred sailings as shippers try to catch up, while carriers may also manage supply through service adjustments.
- Blank sailings tend to increase after CNY as carriers balance supply and demand. This can lift roll risk and stretch ETAs on specific weeks.
Why this matters for Australia & New Zealand supply chains
- Ocean freight: The biggest risk in March isn’t “rate shock” — it’s schedule reliability. Post-holiday congestion, late cargo readiness, and blank sailings can increase rollover risk and disrupt delivery windows into AU/NZ DCs.
- Air freight: January volume lift can partly reflect front-loading ahead of Lunar New Year, but demand can soften quickly afterwards—meaning air can be available, yet volatile on price and space in short bursts.
- Documentation/clearance: When origin teams are ramping back up, delays often show up first in booking confirmations and document timing, which can cascade into missed cut-offs and added storage risk.
What to do now
- Build buffer into ETAs for any inventory tied to promotions, store openings, or seasonal resets.
- Prioritise cargo readiness earlier than usual (especially if manufacturing restarted late).
- Lock documentation early (commercial invoice, packing list, VGM, and any compliance docs) to reduce cut-off and clearance friction.
- Have a split-mode plan ready for critical SKUs (partial air uplift if a rollover or missed sailing would cause a stockout).
- Expect capacity discipline: if reliability matters more than base rate, choose sailings with more buffer and avoid “last feasible cut-off” moves.
Developments in Oceania
Australia’s Economic Outlook
As of February 2026, Australia is back in a tightening phase after inflation proved more persistent than expected. At its 3 February meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, reversing last year’s easing and explicitly citing a “pick-up in inflation to over 3%” as the trigger. Markets now expect further rate increases over 2026, with futures pricing implying roughly 1.4 additional hikes, and the next move almost fully priced for the June Board meeting.
Inflation data released in February underlined the RBA’s concern. The annual CPI rate for January stood at 3.8%, above consensus, while the trimmed-mean measure – the RBA’s preferred core gauge – also remained elevated and above the 2–3% target band. In its February Statement on Monetary Policy, the Bank revised its projections higher, now expecting underlying inflation to peak around 3.7% in mid-2026 and to stay above target until early 2027, before gradually easing back toward the midpoint as demand and supply come back into balance.
Despite higher rates, domestic demand has stayed surprisingly resilient. Major bank commentary points to stronger household incomes, firmer consumer spending and a lift in private business investment, especially in AI and energy-related infrastructure. Housing demand has also re-accelerated, with national home prices forecast to rise by around 5% in 2026, supported by income growth, population pressures and tight supply – a pattern that risks adding to inflationary pressure even as the RBA tries to cool the economy. Overall, Australia enters March 2026 with growth holding up but policy shifting back toward restraint, and the balance of risk tilted toward more hikes rather than cuts in the near term.
New Zealand’s Economic Developments
New Zealand’s starting point in early 2026 looks quite different, with monetary policy already at low levels and the central bank signalling a gradual recovery. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its February meeting, maintaining an accommodative stance after a series of cuts through 2025. In its February Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ noted that economic activity is recovering, supported by low interest rates and high export prices, although the labour market remains weak and spare capacity is still evident.
Inflation in New Zealand is currently slightly above the 1–3% target range, but the Bank expects it to fall through 2026 as earlier policy easing and subdued demand work through the system. Local rate strategists report that 1–3-year wholesale fixed rates have moved lower and then traded sideways so far this year, reflecting a market that has largely priced in the easing cycle and is now awaiting fresh data – particularly business surveys and the Q1 CPI – before reassessing the path for 2027.
Trade data at the start of the year offers a cautiously positive signal. In January 2026, goods exports rose 2.6% year-on-year to NZ$6.2 billion, driven by strong gains in meat and edible offal, precious metals, ships and marine equipment, and specialist industrial products. The monthly goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to NZ$519 million, and the annual trade gap stands at around NZ$2.3 billion – still sizeable, but improving modestly on a year earlier. Notably, exports to Australia were up about 20%, while shipments to China fell, underlining a gradual rebalancing of market exposure within the region.
Trade & Industry Highlights
For both Australia and New Zealand, the trade architecture in Asia–Pacific continues to provide an important buffer against global volatility. The upgraded ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA), which entered into force in April 2025, is now fully operational and shaping trade patterns into 2026. The upgrade modernises the agreement with stronger provisions on e-commerce, services, sustainability and support for MSMEs, reinforcing its role as a core framework for exporters operating across Southeast Asia. Alongside AANZFTA, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and other regional deals continue to offer tariff reductions and simplified rules of origin for Oceania-based shippers.
In this environment, Australia is contending more with domestic cost and capacity pressures than with access to markets. Higher interest rates, strong housing demand and resilient consumer spending are complicating the inflation outlook, which in turn affects financing costs for warehousing, transport assets and working capital. New Zealand, by contrast, is relying on low rates and an improving external position – particularly stronger exports into Australia, the EU and Japan – to drive a gradual recovery, even as it remains exposed to softer Chinese demand and lingering global tariff uncertainty.
Taken together, as of March 2026 the region presents a mixed picture for supply chains: Australia is managing an inflation-driven tightening cycle, while New Zealand leans on accommodative policy and upgraded trade frameworks to support export-led growth. For importers and exporters in Oceania, this means planning around higher financing and housing-driven costs in Australia, and currency, demand and market-mix shifts in New Zealand, all within a trade ecosystem that is increasingly anchored by AANZFTA, CPTPP and wider Indo-Pacific agreements.
Ocean Freight Updates
- Carriers' booking utilization sits at 85%-90% to both AU and NZ, with irregular blank sailings and cargo rolling.
- COSCO shipments to AU Transshipment via Singapore keep waiting times around 3-4 weeks in SIN, under their FIFO operational policy.
- Blank Sailings are expected with an average 10% capacity cut for the rest of March 2026.
Post-CNY softness and capacity management
As services restart after Lunar New Year, analysis indicates transpac capacity is slightly lower than early 2025, with notable shifts by carrier and alliance/network structure.
- Capacity is being redistributed rather than simply “added or removed,” which can change sailing options and reliability week to week.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- Even though this is a US-focused lane, transpac network decisions can affect equipment positioning, transhipment flows, and broader carrier scheduling that indirectly touches Oceania services.
What to do now
- If you rely on transhipments connected to transpac loops, plan for ETA variability in March.
- Lock critical bookings early and avoid “last feasible cut-off” strategies.
Panama terminals: government takeover and operational transition
- Panama formally took control of the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals and transitioned operations to new temporary operators, following court actions affecting prior concessions.
- Under temporary licences, APM Terminals (Maersk) is set to operate Balboa and TIL (MSC) to run Cristóbal during an 18-month transition following the annulment of prior concessions.
- The handover has been described as immediate, with operational continuity positioned as a priority during the transition period.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- Panama is a key strategic link for Americas-related rotations. Changes in terminal control can affect terminal efficiency, berthing windows, and schedule integrity, particularly for services connecting ANZ ↔ US East Coast / Caribbean / LATAM.
What to do now
- If you have cargo tied to Panama-connected rotations, confirm routing and buffers with your forwarder.
- Build contingency into delivery promises where Panama is part of the critical path.
Carrier New Levies and Emergency Surcharges
- Carriers are introducing additional container charges framed around operational constraints (e.g., recovery fees, emergency surcharges) and in some lanes, imbalance fees per container.
- These add-ons can apply for defined windows and specific origin/destination scopes.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- Even when base ocean rates soften, accessorials can rise or become more dynamic, complicating landed-cost forecasting.
- Add-on fees can also flow through to regional trades as carriers adjust networks.
What to do now
- When budgeting, separate “base freight” from “surcharges/add-ons” and review both.
- Ask for confirmation of validity windows and scope (trade lane + dates + equipment types).
Blank sailings: near-term capacity cuts on the transpacific
- Near-term blanking levels are elevated, with dozens of sailings removed across key networks over a short window, and more cuts flagged into March.
- This is occurring alongside weaker throughput signals at major US gateways.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- Capacity discipline on major lanes can create rolling risk and indirectly influence equipment and schedule performance elsewhere.
- For shippers using transhipment hubs, a blanked feeder or mother vessel can create multi-week knock-on delays.
What to do now
- Book earlier for priority sailings; plan buffer inventory where stockouts are costly.
- Consider split shipments or alternative routings for critical replenishment.
Ocean Freight Snapshot (March 2026)
Check our snapshot for a quick glance at space, rate, equipment, and transit times for Oceania.
Air Freight Updates
Impact of De Minimis Reform
- The removal/tightening of de minimis has shifted many ecommerce flows from bulk/manifest-style processing toward individual entry-level declarations, sharply increasing compliance workload.
- Operators are being pushed to capture more complete shipment data earlier, because “fixing it later” slows clearance and creates exceptions.
- Automation and AI are being used to extract invoice data, support HS classification suggestions, and reduce screening noise—while brokers still retain oversight due to liability and licensing responsibilities.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- If your supply chain touches the US (directly or via customers), expect more documentation sensitivity on low-value, high-volume shipments—especially mixed-SKU consignments.
- Data quality (accurate descriptions, HS codes, shipper/consignee details) becomes a lead-time driver, not an admin detail.
What to do now
- Tighten invoice and product master data (HS codes, descriptions, values, party details).
- Build extra buffer for ecommerce/parcel-style programs until processes stabilise.
- If volumes are high, consider process redesign (pre-classification, data capture at order stage, exception rules).
Seasonal peaks didn’t lift rates as expected
- Air cargo markets are showing subdued demand signals, with global rates tracking similarly to prior years despite Chinese New Year occurring at different calendar times.
- Industry feedback suggests the typical pre-CNY surge was muted, leaving capacity broadly adequate in many corridors.
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- This supports a more “planned air” approach: airfreight may be available for urgency without the same level of peak-season price shock—though short-lived tight pockets can still happen.
What to do now
- Use air strategically for launches, promos, or exception recovery.
- Plan uplift early for high-priority SKUs; keep documentation ready to avoid clearance delays.
Air cargo volumes up in January, but e-commerce softness is a risk
- Market commentary indicates global air cargo volumes rose year-on-year in January, but analysts caution that underlying strength may be uneven, with e-commerce demand a key swing factor.
- If e-commerce softens, it can reduce pressure on capacity (helpful for spot availability), but it can also lead to volatile week-to-week pricing as airlines adjust.
Treat air pricing as “burst risk” rather than a steady climb; plan uplift windows early for urgent SKUs.
Air Freight Snapshot (March 2026)
Customs, Inland Transport, Terminal and Regulation Updates
NZ: Depot fees update + Port of Auckland VBS reminder (effective 1 Feb)
- Updated empty depot fees apply from 1 February 2026 for Auckland and Christchurch (per container), reflecting cost increases across depots.
- POAL VBS charges increased from 1 January 2026 (peak +35%, off-peak +15%), with a further step-up from 1 July 2026 (peak +28%, off-peak +33%).
Why it matters for Australia & New Zealand customers
- These changes can materially affect landed cost and delivery strategy, especially for FCL import programs into Auckland.
What to do now
NZ: Cabinet-approved fee/levy changes for border management (from 1 April 2026)
- New Zealand published a new structure of fees and levies applying from 1 April 2026, including combined Customs/MPI charges differentiated by high-value vs low-value and air vs sea pathways.
- Importers may see changes in clearance-related costs that are passed through by brokers/agents and can appear as new line items from April clearances.
What to do now
- Confirm with your broker/forwarder how the new structure will show on invoices.
- Brief procurement/finance so March arrivals cleared in April don’t create surprises.
QLD: New container depot at the Port of Mackay
- A new container depot is under development at Mackay to support regular containerised import/export flows directly through the port.
- The facility is positioned to reduce reliance on longer-haul movements to larger ports, with intended benefits including time/cost savings, reduced highway heavy-vehicle traffic, and improved resilience; reefers are also referenced as part of capability planning.
- For regional Queensland supply chains, this can improve network optionality and potentially reduce inland legs over time.
- If you ship in/out of Central QLD, review whether Mackay could fit future lane design (cost, transit, service frequency).
ANZ–USA East Coast: enhanced standalone direct service commencing Feb 2026
- MSC confirms an enhanced weekly “Eagle Service” launching from February 2026, deploying 11 vessels and providing connectivity via Panama.
- Rotation listed includes: Philadelphia – Savannah – Freeport – Rodman – Papeete – Auckland – Sydney – Melbourne – Brisbane – Tauranga – Rodman – Cristobal – Philadelphia.
- This adds an additional direct service option to the US East Coast and may influence transit choices and contingency planning for US programs.
- If you ship to the US East Coast, review whether this rotation improves service fit for your origin/DC network.
- Confirm cut-offs and inland connections early, as new services can bed-in operationally.