October’s story was less about the Middle East and more about peak season arriving on every front at once. Air freight entered peak above the levels of the last two years, ocean surcharges and rate restorations landed on 1 November, and schedule reliability at Australian ports fell to its weakest level of 2026. The two central banks moved in opposite directions: the RBNZ surprised markets with a hold on 28 October, and the RBA lifted the cash rate on 3 November. Jet fuel, still up more than 110% year on year, is the common thread running through air costs and the broader inflation picture.
Air cargo is the clearest signal of how tight the market has become. The Baltic Air Freight Index was 26.4% above last year in the week to 19 October, and WorldACD recorded global spot rates of USD 3.80 per kg in week 43, up 38% year on year. Hong Kong, Cathay and Singapore Changi all posted strong September volumes. Factory output across Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand is running hot, which means Oceania buyers are competing for the same Asian export capacity as transpacific and European shippers. Space is tight from Shanghai, Shenzhen, Singapore and Hanoi, and Middle East gateways remain volatile and largely spot-priced. Most of the rate pressure sits on Asia–US and Asia–Europe lanes, but Australia and New Zealand cargo moves on the same aircraft out of the same hubs, so the squeeze flows through.
On the ocean side, 1 November brought a layered cost increase. Maersk’s peak season surcharge took effect on dry containers to Australia and New Zealand, and ANL followed its 15 October restorations with further increases on North East Asia and Southeast Asia/Indian Subcontinent services into Australia. Global indices are not a useful guide for Oceania: the Drewry WCI rose a modest 2% on 22 October, but Oceania lanes are being driven by restorations, surcharges and seasonal demand. Reliability is the larger problem. Only 21% of vessels arrived on time across Australia’s five main container ports in September, running an average of 6.8 days late. Conditions at Shanghai are improving, but Southeast Asia transhipment waits of 7–12 days persist at Singapore and Port Klang. In New Zealand, omitted port calls are pushing Wellington and Tauranga cargo through Auckland, and landside congestion continues at Melbourne and Brisbane.
Domestically, the policy paths diverged again. The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on 3 November, the highest since 2008, in a 6–3 split after September CPI rose to 4.3% and the trimmed mean reached 3.7%. Forecasters are divided on December, and several banks have cut their 2027 growth forecasts to around 1%. In New Zealand, the RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% on 28 October by a 4–3 vote, against market pricing of roughly 90% for a hike, after Q3 CPI eased to 3.7%. It still expects tighter policy to be needed, and the next decisions fall on 8 December (RBA) and 9 December (RBNZ). New Zealand’s September goods deficit of NZ$1.97 billion, driven by fuel imports, widened the annual deficit to NZ$6.2 billion. On the positive side, the NZ–India FTA entered into force on 20 October, with 57% of New Zealand’s exports to India duty-free from day one. For importers and exporters across both markets, the final two months of 2026 call for early bookings, realistic transit assumptions and landed-cost models that reflect the November surcharge layer.
Book peak season air space now, and confirm the routing as well as the rate.
With spot rates 38% higher than a year ago and capacity flat, the airfreight market is rewarding shippers who commit early. Space is tightest out of mainland China and Hong Kong, so allow at least one to two weeks between booking and departure for priority cargo, and ask for confirmed flight details rather than an indicative rate. Where suppliers have flexibility, Southeast Asian gateways can offer more options, but check how cargo will connect to Australia or New Zealand before you commit. If an ocean booking is at risk of missing a Christmas window, decide early which SKUs justify a switch to air. Speak to your KLN Oceania account manager to secure air capacity for November and December and build a contingency plan for your highest-priority stock.
Peak Season Cargo, Protected From Pick-Up to Delivery
When something goes wrong in transit, the freight bill is rarely the biggest cost. It is the damaged stock, the missed delivery date and the margin that disappears with them.
This peak season, that risk is higher than usual. Only 21% of vessels arrived on time at Australia's main container ports in September, with late ships averaging 6.8 days behind schedule, and October brought the most attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz since tracking began in 2017. The longer cargo spends in transit, the more chances there are for loss, damage or handling errors.
KLN Oceania arranges cargo insurance with leading insurance providers, tailored to each shipment and covering it from pick-up to delivery. Share your cargo and route details, and our team will assess the risks, put the right cover in place and handle the documentation if you ever need to make a claim.
Protect your next shipment before it leaves origin.
October left one thing unchanged and two things moving. Hormuz stayed effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, and no reopening agreement had been confirmed in the sources we reviewed as at 6 November 2026. Central banks on either side of the Tasman went different ways, with the RBA lifting rates again and the RBNZ holding in a split vote. And carriers kept moving capacity back onto the Suez route.
Strait traffic stayed far below normal. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed 7 commodity vessels crossing on Tuesday 6 October, the lowest daily count since 23 July, and 10 on Wednesday 7 October. Counts had been above 20 on 4 and 5 October. Before the war began on 28 February, about 125 large commercial vessels crossed each day.
Security incidents rose. Maritime security sources reported that attacks on tankers in the week to early October were the highest of any week since the war began, and UKMTO reported projectiles striking a tanker north of Qatar's Madinat ash Shamal, with casualties.
Oil kept moving by other routes. Kpler estimated crude crossing the strait fell 27% from a wartime high to at least 10.1 million barrels a day, largely because ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman dropped. Loadings on the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea coasts reached 6.7 million barrels a day, more than double the pre-war level, so total Middle East crude exports stayed close to pre-war levels.
Diplomacy did not break the deadlock. Iran put a reopening proposal to the US in mid-September, after an interim ceasefire collapsed. Iran has called the US response insufficient, and on 18 October it urged Washington to accept the proposal.
What this means for Oceania
The airfreight market accelerated through the second half of October. TAC Index data shows the Baltic Air Freight Index up 4.7% in the week to 19 October and 26.4% higher year on year, above the levels reached at this point in the last two peak seasons. The gains were led by China–US lanes, with outbound indices from Shanghai up 8.4% and Hong Kong up 5.3% in that week.
WorldACD figures for week 43 (19–25 October) confirm the trend. Global spot rates rose 5% to USD 3.80 per kg, 38% higher than a year earlier, while the full-market average rose 3% to USD 3.33 per kg. Tonnage dipped 2% on the week but remains 2% above 2025, and capacity fell 1%, partly because a typhoon disrupted operations in Taiwan. In Asia Pacific, spot rates rose 6% in a single week.
KLN's internal market intelligence for the same week shows a consistent picture across Asian gateways: space tight from Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ezhou, Singapore and Hanoi, a cargo backlog out of Hong Kong, and stable but elevated rates expected into early November. Middle East gateways remain volatile, with rates ex Dubai largely on a spot basis due to the regional conflict.
Fuel is the common thread. IATA data shows jet fuel up 113.7% year on year in the week to 16 October, and airlines are passing that cost through.
What this means entering November
Most of the rate pressure is on Asia–US and Asia–Europe lanes, but Oceania shippers compete for the same aircraft out of the same Asian hubs. When transpacific demand absorbs freighter and belly capacity in Shanghai and Hong Kong, space for Australia and New Zealand gets harder to secure and more expensive. One exception: TAC reported falling rates from Europe to Australia in the week to 19 October, which may open a window for European-origin cargo.
Hong Kong International Airport handled 433,000 tonnes in September, up 6.3% year on year after declines in July and August. Transhipment cargo jumped 26.9% and imports rose 9.2%, with the airport authority citing Southeast Asia and mainland China as the main growth drivers. Cathay Cargo carried more than 150,000 tonnes in September, up 14.2% on the same month in 2025.
Singapore Changi is growing too, handling 191,000 tonnes in September, up 9.7%, with Australia among its largest markets for the quarter.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Much of the Asia–Oceania air trade moves through Hong Kong and Singapore. Strong transhipment flows mean those hubs are working hard, so connection times can stretch at peak. For time-critical cargo, ask your forwarder about direct services or alternative hubs, and allow extra buffer on connections through Hong Kong.
Behind the demand is a strong run of manufacturing activity in Oceania's key sourcing markets:
What this means for Oceania businesses
Strong factory output is good news for supply, but it also means Australian and New Zealand buyers are competing with more cargo for the same export capacity. Expect suppliers in Vietnam and Southeast Asia to be busy into December, and confirm cargo-ready dates early to avoid last-minute surprises.
Australia's Economic Outlook
The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on 3 November, its fifth increase of 2026 and the highest rate since 2008. Unlike September’s unanimous decision, this one was split: six Board members voted to hike and three voted to hold at 4.60%. In its statement, the Board said underlying inflation remains broadly based, capacity pressures look tighter than previously estimated, and higher fuel costs are now being passed through to other goods and services. It expects inflation to stay above 3% for the coming year and warned of a growing risk that higher inflation expectations become embedded.
The data behind the decision arrived on 28 October. Annual CPI rose to 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% in August, with fuel prices a major driver. Underlying inflation was the more concerning signal for the RBA. The trimmed mean rose 1.0% over the September quarter and 3.7% over the year, above the RBA’s own forecast of 3.4%. The ABS’s monthly trimmed mean measure was 3.6%. Housing remains a large contributor to annual inflation at 5.2%.
Forecasters are divided on what comes next. ANZ sees a material risk that the cash rate reaches 5.10% in December or February, and Westpac has flagged February as the more likely timing for another hike. NAB expects a pause after November. CBA does not rule out further tightening in 2027. Several banks have also cut their growth forecasts for 2027 to around 1%, with unemployment projected to rise. The next RBA decision is scheduled for 8 December.
New Zealand's Economic Developments
The RBNZ surprised markets on 28 October by holding the OCR at 2.75%, with the Monetary Policy Committee split 4–3. Markets had priced roughly a 90% chance of a hike to 3.00%, and all five major NZ banks had expected one. Four members (including Governor Anna Breman) voted to hold, and three voted for a 25 basis point increase.
The majority’s reasoning rested on Q3 inflation coming in lower than expected. Annual CPI eased to 3.7% in the September quarter, down from 4.1% in June, as petrol prices fell 6.5% over the quarter. Excluding petrol, annual inflation was 3.2%. The majority also pointed to subdued wage growth, stable inflation expectations and a still-fragile domestic recovery. The minority argued that core inflation has been too high for too long, and cited persistently elevated freight and shipping costs as a risk to price-setting.
The RBNZ still expects tighter policy to be needed, though the timing is now conditional on incoming data. It forecasts annual inflation rising to 4.4% in the December quarter on fuel prices, and noted the NZ dollar has fallen around 3% on a trade-weighted basis since early September. The next decision, with updated forecasts, is on 9 December.
September trade data, released by Stats NZ on 19 October, showed the cost of fuel continuing to weigh on the trade balance. Goods exports rose 12% year-on-year to NZ$6.5 billion, led by dairy. Imports rose 18% to NZ$8.4 billion, with petroleum imports of around NZ$1.2 billion, nearly double a year earlier. The monthly deficit was NZ$1.97 billion, well above market expectations of around NZ$775 million, and the annual deficit widened to NZ$6.2 billion.
Trade & Industry Highlights
The two central banks have diverged. Australia is still tightening because inflation has proven stubborn and broad-based. New Zealand has paused because weak domestic demand is limiting how much of the fuel shock is feeding through. Both economies remain exposed to the same energy and shipping disruption.
Regional trade links are providing some offset. Stats NZ reported on 19 October that imports from ASEAN reached NZ$16 billion in the year to September 2026, up 15%. This reinforces Southeast Asia’s role as a supply base for NZ importers, supported by AANZFTA.
For Oceania importers and exporters, the planning implications are:
Several carrier cost changes for Asia–Oceania cargo took effect from 1 November 2026:
What to do Now:
Alphaliner reported on 21 October that carriers had moved 63% of Far East to Europe capacity back onto the Suez route. Between 15 September and 15 October, 5.50 million TEU of the 8.70 million TEU deployed on that trade ran on services using the Red Sea. CMA CGM kept transiting throughout, and COSCO, OOCL, Maersk and MSC have returned on selected services. Evergreen and ZIM are the only two of the ten largest carriers yet to resume.
For Oceania, the clearest benefit is on Europe to Australia and New Zealand voyages, where a Suez routing can be shorter than the Cape diversion. The benefit differs by carrier, service, vessel and sailing date, and routings can still change after booking.
Asia to Oceania trades do not use the canal. Any relief there is likely to arrive indirectly, as vessel capacity is released elsewhere. That effect is slower and less certain, and it should not be built into November pricing or delivery assumptions.
What to do now: Confirm the routing of each Europe to Oceania booking, not just the service name. Do not shorten delivery assumptions until the vessel is confirmed on the Suez routing, and check your cargo insurance whenever a routing changes.
Drewry's World Container Index rose 2% per 40' on 22 October, up from 8 October, led by Asia–Europe and Transpacific lanes. Drewry expects Asia–Europe rates to rise slightly as blank sailings increase. The WCI tracks East–West routes rather than Oceania lanes, but it confirms that carriers are actively managing capacity to support rates into the end of the year.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Oceania lanes are being driven more by restorations, surcharges and peak season demand than by global indices. Do not expect global rate softness to flow through to Asia–Oceania quotes before the new year.
Schedule reliability at Australian ports deteriorated sharply in September. Across the five main container ports, only 21% of vessels arrived on time, down from an average of 33% between January and August, and late vessels arrived an average of 6.8 days behind schedule. Adelaide (17% on time, 7.7 days late) and Melbourne (21%, 7.4 days late) were the weakest performers.
At origin, conditions are improving. Vessel waiting times at Shanghai fell from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42, according to Drewry. However, Southeast Asia transhipment remains a pain point, with waits of 7–12 days for onward vessels reported at Singapore and Port Klang on some services.
What this means for Oceania businesses
For Christmas stock, the realistic planning assumption is that a vessel may arrive a week late. Transhipment via Southeast Asia adds further risk, so direct services are worth a premium for time-critical cargo.
Several carriers have omitted New Zealand calls on selected voyages, with cargo for Wellington and Tauranga discharged in Auckland instead.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Check the final discharge port on every booking and allow for additional inland transport where cargo is rerouted through Auckland.
Maersk has soft-launched a new export documentation policy on 2 November, with enforcement for applicable bookings from 30 November.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Exporters using Maersk services should confirm the new requirements with their forwarder before the enforcement date to avoid rolled bookings.
Air freight rates dipped briefly after China's Golden Week, with the Baltic Air Freight Index falling 2.1% in the week to 13 October as factories closed and volumes eased. The pause was short-lived in context: the index remains 24.3% higher than a year ago, and TAC Index describes the market as firm heading into the traditional peak season. E-commerce shippers have already secured peak-season capacity, while technology and data centre cargo is competing hard for space on transpacific routes, which tightens capacity across Asia.
What this means for Oceania bussinesses
Air freight remains the most reliable fallback when ocean schedules slip, but it is not getting cheaper. Decide now which products justify air freight if a sailing is missed, and book early to avoid the late-November squeeze.IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor showed jet fuel up 3.1% in the week to 9 October and around 112% higher year on year, reflecting the Middle East conflict. Fuel remains the single biggest factor behind higher air freight rates in 2026.
Qantas Freight in Melbourne requires export ULDs to be delivered four to six hours before departure while infrastructure works continue. Import cargo is not affected.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Time-sensitive air imports and exports through Qantas Freight should include additional buffer until the dispute is settled. KLN Oceania will advise customers of any further action through customer advisories.
Christchurch Airport will offer a record 1.27 million international seats from November 2026 to March 2027, with 21% more flights than last summer. New Air New Zealand 787-9 routes to Singapore (late October), Tokyo Narita and Perth (both late November), along with additional Singapore Airlines and China Southern capacity, will add cargo space in passenger aircraft holds.
What this means for Oceania businesses
Additional belly capacity should help ease some of the air freight tightness New Zealand shippers experienced in September.
The New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement entered into force on 20 October 2026. From day one, 57% of New Zealand exports to India are tariff-free, including wool and coal, and more than 95% of forestry and wood exports gain duty-free access. India will also offer preferential quotas for New Zealand apples, kiwifruit and albumins, and a second round of tariff reductions follows on 1 January 2027. Exporters must hold valid certificates of origin to claim preferential ra
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry has flagged Phase 2 of its diagnostics cost recovery changes, including fixed fees for most diagnostic activities on imported cargo, with an expected start date of 1 November 2026. The department describes this date as proposed, so importers should confirm final pricing with their customs broker.
Truck turnaround times at DP World West Swanson in Melbourne have been running at two to three hours or more, with constrained booking slots, and DP World Brisbane has also experienced congestion. Allow extra time for container collection and dehire during peak season.
Contact our KLN Oceania team for freight planning support, cargo insurance review, or customs brokerage advice specific to your programmes.